Analysts aren't sure Page can pull off that feat. And not everyone sees Google
through such rose-colored glasses. Google must crack the code on making money on
mobile devices. It also faces growing pressure to show investors it can turn all
this costly technological wizardry into moneymaking businesses.
"If you look at the revenue of core Google.com sites, we have had three quarters
in a row of year-over-year growth below 20%," BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis
said. "If you go back and look at what the revenue used to be, it was a rocket
ship. The rocket ship is slowing down."
Google faces major obstacles on other fronts, too. As the technology giant has
grown ever bigger and more powerful, worming its way into every detail and facet
of people's lives, it has drawn heavy scrutiny from government regulators and
consumer watchdogs the world over.
Google emerged largely unscathed from an antitrust probe in the U.S. But its
privacy practices are under attack in Europe, where it could face fines or
restrictions on its operations. And Google's competitors are trying to undermine
an agreement the company reached with European antitrust authorities, which
could force major concessions or scuttle the deal.
Still, these days the criticism is more muted, and more investors are betting on
Google than against it.
"Google can do no wrong right now," said Anthony Valencia, media analyst at TCW
Group. "It is not hard to map out a scenario in which they continue to gain
market share of the worldwide advertising market as they expand into other areas
and keep up double-digit top-line growth. There are not a lot of companies that
can do that."
Analysts credit Page, who broke through bureaucratic layers that had slowed
Google's pace and handpicked a small team of lieutenants -- called the L-Team --
to help shape Google's strategy. He culled the herd of unsuccessful projects to
refocus Google on key product lines. And some of the big bets Page championed years ago -- buying a tiny start-up to build Google's mobile software Android and popular video-sharing website YouTube -- have begun to pay off.
Android devices had about 69% of the smartphone market in 2012, up from 49% in
2011, according to research firm IDC.
Google's YouTube has become the most popular video-sharing website in the world, bringing in an estimated $1.3 billion in advertising revenue last year. That
number could reach $2 billion this year and $2.7 billion in 2014, Pivotal Research analyst Brian Wieser estimates.
Now Google is focusing on new products that could help search make the leap to
mobile devices. Google Now, a personal assistant like Apple's Siri, anticipates
what information the user might want and provides it before the user asks.
Google is counting on Google Now to help it offer more useful services and more
relevant ads on mobile devices.
And Google may have also found a solution -- at least for now -- to one of its biggest challenges: making big money from small screens.
A growing percentage of activity on Google's search engine is taking place on mobile devices, where ads generally cost less than they do on websites accessed
via PCs. That has led to a decline in the amount that advertisers pay Google when someone clicks on an ad. So Google changed the rules. Advertisers must now create a single campaign, rather than separate campaigns, for different devices, and all Google ad campaigns will now include mobile ads.
"There is a clear shift under Larry in our ambitions. We were always an
ambitious company. Always, always, always. But today our ambitions are bigger.
They are bolder," Google search chief Amit Singhal said.
Page is fond of saying that the greatest threat to Google is Google itself.
Analysts tend to agree.
They worry about costly investments in speculative projects. And they worry
about Google's $12.5-billion acquisition of Motorola Mobility, a struggling
hardware maker whose operations continue to bleed heavy losses.
Google executives shrugged off the concerns.
"We have a very long-term vision. What we are trying to accomplish might take
more than a decade," said Vic Gundotra, senior vice president of engineering.
"People may overestimate us or underestimate us. But we will stay true to our
vision."
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News Column
With Google There Is No Competition
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Source: (c)2013 the Los Angeles Times. Distributed by MCT Information Services.
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