by Gallup, which found that 34 percent of Americans thought that
gold was the best long-term investment, more than any other
investment category, including real estate and mutual funds.
It is hard to know just how much money ordinary Americans plowed
into gold, given the array of investment vehicles, including
government-minted coins, publicly traded commodity funds, mining
company stocks and physical bullion. But $5 billion that flowed into
gold-focused mutual funds in 2009 and 2010, according to
Morningstar, an investment research firm, helped the funds reach a
peak value of $26.3 billion. Since hitting a peak in April 2011,
those funds have lost half of their value.
"Gold is very much a psychological market," said William O'Neill,
a co-founder of the research firm Logic Advisors, which told its
investors to get out of all gold positions in December after having
recommended the investment for years. "Unless there is some
unforeseen development, I think the market is going lower."
Gold's abrupt reversal has also been painful for companies that
were cashing in on the gold craze. In the past year, two gold-
focused mutual funds were liquidated after years of new fund
openings, Morningstar data show. Perhaps the most famous company to
come out of the 2011 gold rush, the retail trading company Goldline,
has drastically cut back its advertising on cable television,
lowering spending to $3.7 million from $17.8 million in 2010,
according to Kantar Media.
Goldline agreed to pay $4.5 million last year to settle charges
brought by the city attorney of Santa Monica, California, accusing
the company of running a bait-and-switch operation. Goldline did not
respond to requests for comment for this article.
But the worst news for gold is probably good news for the broader
economy, which, though still struggling to grow, has recovered from
its lows.
"As the economy improves, the demand for gold as a financial
hedge declines more than the fundamental demand for gold jewelry
increases," said Daniel J. Arbess, a partner at Perella Weinberg
Partners, who sold off his fund's large stake in gold in the fourth
quarter of 2012.
Investment professionals, who have focused many of their bets on
gold exchange-traded funds, or E.T.F.'s, have been faster than
retail investors to catch wind of gold's changing fortune. The
outflow at the most popular E.T.F., the SPDR Gold Shares, was the
biggest of any E.T.F. in the first quarter of this year as hedge
funds and traders pulled out $6.6 billion, according to the data
firm IndexUniverse. Two prominent hedge fund managers who had taken
big positions in gold E.T.F.'s, George Soros and Louis M. Bacon,
sold in the past quarter of 2012, according to recent regulatory
filings.
"Gold was destroyed as a safe haven, proved to be unsafe," Mr.
Soros said in an interview last week with The South China Morning
Post of Hong Kong. "Because of the disappointment, most people are
reducing their holdings of gold."
Gold's most vocal bulls say gold doubters are losing faith too
easily. Peter Schiff, the chief executive of the investment firm
Euro Pacific Capital, said that he still expected gold to hit $5,000
an ounce within a few years because, he said, the world is headed
for a period of dangerous hyperinflation.
"People believe the U.S. economy is recovering. It's not," said
Mr. Schiff.
The most famous investor who is standing by gold is John Paulson,
the hedge fund manager who made a fortune betting against the U.S.
housing market. His $900 million gold fund reportedly dropped 26
percent in the first two months of this year.
Mr. Paulson's losses were particularly severe because he had bet
heavily on gold mining companies, which have fallen more sharply
than gold itself.
Mr. Norstog, in Pocatello, made a similar mistake. He put his
money in a gold fund that was focused on mining company stocks.
"If I had to do it all over again, I would have just bought the
gold," Mr. Norstog said. "At least that way I could have run my
fingers through the glittering coins."
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A Gold Rush in Reverse as Value Dwindles
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