The administration hasn't suggested new elections are imminent, but Maduro seems to be in campaign mode. A former union organizer and longtime foreign minister, Maduro, 50, has been leading rallies, inaugurating projects and excoriating the opposition almost daily. On Friday, as he toured a student-housing complex, he called his political foes "profoundly inhuman and corrupt" and accused the opposition of "resorting to all sorts of manipulations to create uncertainty in the country."
But most of the uncertainty here revolves around the president's health.
Chavez was whisked back to Caracas Feb. 18, unannounced and in the dead of night. Despite the homecoming, he hasn't been seen in public, or heard from, since Dec. 10, when he traveled to Cuba for a fourth round of cancer surgery.
On Wednesday, Bolivian President Evo Morales traveled to Caracas to see him, but the meeting never took place. The uncertainty only increased Thursday, when the government said the respiratory infection that Chavez has been battling since the surgery -- and which has required a tracheal tube to assist his breathing -- was not responding to treatment. But on Friday, Maduro said the president had presided over a five-hour cabinet meeting and described him as being happy and alert.
The upbeat reports haven't satisfied many here.
"If he was in a meeting for so many hours why won't they show him on TV?" asked Fernando Salcedo, a Caracas' cab driver. "It just doesn't make sense to me."
Most analysts think expedited elections would favor the government. The country was recently forced to devalue its currency 46.5 percent against the dollar -- an unpopular move that makes imported goods more expensive -- and has been battling rising inflation. The longer Maduro stays at the helm, the more his image will be tarnished by those problems.
"As of now, Maduro would win any election," Fausto Maso, a columnist for the opposition El Nacional wrote. "But if this mess continues, the country will keep disintegrating and anything could happen, including the electoral defeat of Chavismo."
During his 14 years in office, Chavez has proved invincible in the polls, winning four presidential elections and surviving one recall attempt. In 2006, after decades of infighting, the opposition finally joined forces to present common candidates to face the administration. Even so, during October's race, Chavez beat Capriles by 11 points to win another six-year term.
But Maduro is no Chavez, said Ramon Jose Medina, the adjunct secretary of the MUD. Chavez maintained his popularity by blaming his Cabinet for the administration's failings, including record-high inflation and soaring crime, Medina said. That has left Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, who is also considered a presidential hopeful, hobbled.
"Maduro is weak on all sides," Medina said. Not only is the vice president burdened with the administration's sins but "he's been imitating Chavez -- he shows no signs of true leadership."
Not everyone agrees. Oscar Schemel, the director of Hinterlaces polling firm, expects the sympathy vote generated when Chavez dies or resigns will propel Maduro or any other successor. A Hinterlaces poll released last week shows Maduro winning 50 percent of the vote versus Capriles' 36 percent.
National Assembly Deputy Maria Corina Machado, who has also been mentioned as an opposition candidate, said the debate about the future of the movement is healthy. But once a standard-bearer has been chosen, whether it's Capriles or someone else, the opposition will rally behind them.
"The unity of Venezuela's democratic forces is assured because it is a true demand from the people," she said. "And it's something that took us a lot of effort to conquer."
(c)2013 The Miami Herald
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Distributed by MCT Information Services
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