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Summary of Best Estimate (P50) Contingent Resource - By Property (1)(3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net Present Values of Before Tax Future Net Revenue Gross(2) as of December 31, 2012 Heavy Oil/ Contingent Resources - Best EstimateProject Bitumen Discounted at---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0% 5% 8% 10% 12%---------------------------------------------------------------------------- (MMboe) ($million)----------------------------------------------------------------------------Blackrod 476 9,037 3,500 2,018 1,393 951Onion Lake 70 2,892 1,514 1,058 840 671Mooney 37 743 332 220 169 131----------------------------------------------------------------------------Total 583 12,672 5,346 3,296 2,402 1,753----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
1. These volumes are arithmetic sums of multiple estimates of contingent resources, which statistical principles indicate may be misleading as to volumes that may actually be recovered. Readers should give attention to the estimates of individual classes of resources and appreciate the differing probabilities of recovery associated with each class as explained.2. Contingent Resources are defined in the COGE Handbook as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as Contingent Resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage.3. There are three categories in evaluating contingent resources: Low Estimate, Best Estimate and High Estimate. Best estimate (P50) is a classification of estimated resources described in the COGE Handbook as being considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will be actually recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.4. The estimates of contingent resources (best estimate) and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence levels as estimates of contingent resources (best estimate) and future net revenues for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation.5. "Gross" means the Company's working interest share in the contingent resources of bitumen and heavy oil before deducting royalties. The Company has a 100% working interest at Blackrod and Mooney, and a 79.795 to 100% working interest at Onion Lake.6. The amounts included in these tables do not include the volume and value of BlackPearl's proved and probable reserves previously assigned by Sproule to these properties.7. The contingencies in the Sproule Report associated with the Company's Blackrod contingent resources are due to the following: (a)the requirement for more evaluation drilling to define the reservoir characteristics of the resource;(b)the absence of submission of a commercial SAGD development application (Phase 2); and (c)the uncertainty of timing of production and development.8. The contingencies in the Sproule Report associated with the Company's Onion Lake contingent resources are due to the following: (a)the requirement for more evaluation drilling to define the reservoir characteristics of the resource; (b)the uncertainty of company commitment for commercial SAGD development; and (c)the uncertainty of timing of production and development.9. The contingencies in the Sproule Report associated with the Company's Mooney contingent resources are due to the following: (a) the requirement for more evaluation wells to further define reservoir and fluid characteristics; (b)further establishment of increased production response from the Alkali Surfactant Polymer (ASP) flood in Phase One, which began July 2011; and (c) the uncertainty of timing of production and development of the entire field.
