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supermajority to override a gubernatorial veto, allowing vulnerable Republicans to avoid the tough vote.

Jones' high-profile flip is indicative of a reality in Missouri politics: A growing GOP bench of potential statewide candidates is beginning to make plays for 2016.

James Harris, a Republican consultant who leads Jones' political campaign, said he believes the House will pass the bill and that it will be seen as a victory for conservatives, which could help Jones in a potential Republican primary.

"Under strong conservative leadership, the Missouri House has the unique opportunity to tackle some big issues facing our state. Passing right-to-work legislation is a logical starting point, as it will stimulate our struggling economy and in turn help improve our state's fiscal outlook," Harris said.

In recent Missouri history, House speakers have not been able to garner support for statewide candidacies. Winning leadership races among members of one's caucus is significantly different than winning primaries, where voters come from a wide array of political orientations.

Energy legislation

Outside of leadership races, things such as legislative rankings also hold some sway. One of the leading ranking systems among conservatives is the American Conservative Union's, which last week announced opposition to a piece of energy legislation that has support from most of the Senate Republican leadership team.

Senate Bill 207 would change state law to allow electric companies to ask the Missouri Public Service Commission for rate increases up to 10 percent a year in order to fund infrastructure projects through a surcharge. While subject to PSC review, it would not require the electric utility to initiate a full-blown rate case that can require 11 months.

Proponents argue that it removes regulatory barriers and will allow for additional investment in power generation, substations and distribution systems.

Water and natural gas utilities already have the authority to use the surcharge.

Ameren, an energy company that powers parts of eastern and mid-Missouri, is leading the effort to pass the bill. On Tuesday, Warner Baxter, chairman and CEO of Ameren, joined by a representative of Empire District Electric Co. in Joplin and Kansas City Power and Light, presented the legislation and urged lawmakers to allow the change.

"Our alliance is a true collaboration," Baxter said. "We certainly need to invest in our aging infrastructure."

The American Conservative Union, in a letter sent to lawmakers last week, said it plans to include SB207 as a key vote in its legislative ranking this year.

"Missouri's electric companies are government-granted monopolies and are not real businesses in the sense that they have no competition and are guaranteed a profit by government regulators," wrote Larry Hart, government relations director for the group. "There is never a good time to increase the burden on businesses and the citizens of Missouri, but this is the absolute worst time."

Jones, who made energy a pillar of his "Triple E" legislative agenda (economic development, energy policy and education), has not explicitly come out in favor of the proposal. But Senate Majority Floor Leader Ron Richard, R-Joplin, and Senate Appropriations Chairman Kurt Schaefer, R-Columbia, are listed as co-sponsors of the bill.

The emerging conservative opposition to the bill may make it one of the more important votes of the year in terms of future electoral politics.

Nixon, speaking with reporters Thursday in Columbia, brushed off a question about whether he would support the legislation, saying only that he wants to go down the path that keeps energy rates low and allows energy companies to expand their infrastructure.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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