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Based on our expected 2013 mid-range production estimates and a Canadian/U.S. dollar exchange rate of $1.00, the sensitivity of our annual profit attributable to shareholders to the indicated changes in commodity prices, before pricing adjustments and the U.S. dollar exchange rate is as follows:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 Mid-Range Effect of Production Change Effect on Estimates Change On Profit EBITDA----------------------------------------------------------------------------Coal (000's tonnes) 24,500 US$1/tonne $ 16 million $ 25 millionCopper (tonnes) 350,000 US$0.01/lb $ 4 million $ 7 millionZinc (tonnes) 860,000 US$0.01/lb $ 7 million $ 11 millionUS$ exchange Cdn$0.01 $ 45 million $ 70 million----------------------------------------------------------------------------1. The effect on our profit attributable to shareholders of commodity price and exchange rate movements will vary from quarter to quarter depending on sales volumes.2. Zinc includes 285,000 tonnes of refined zinc and 575,000 tonnes of zinc contained in concentrates.3. All production estimates are subject to change based on market and operating conditions.
Foreign exchange translation gains and losses on our U.S. dollar denominated debt arising from exchange rate fluctuations are not expected to have a significant effect on our 2013 profit, as our debt level is expected to be designated as a hedge against our investments in U.S. dollar denominated foreign operations and working capital items.
Copper and zinc prices, to date in 2013, are trading similar to 2012 average prices. Coal market conditions softened in the third quarter and remained lower through the fourth quarter. The fluctuations in the Canadian/U.S. dollar exchange rate can have a significant effect on our profit and financial position. The Canadian dollar, to date in 2013, has averaged approximately $1.00 against the US dollar compared with $1.00 in 2012.
Our copper production for 2013 is expected to be in the range of 340,000 to 360,000 tonnes compared with 373,000 tonnes produced in 2012. The lower expected production is a result of declining production from Quebrada Blanca and lower ore grades at Highland Valley Copper.
Our coal production in 2013 is expected to be in the range of 24.0 to 25.0 million tonnes. Our actual production will depend primarily on customer demand for deliveries of steelmaking coal. Depending on market conditions and the sales outlook, we may adjust our production plans. We have the flexibility to devote additional resources to pre-stripping in these circumstances. Our current production capacity is approximately 27 million tonnes and is expected to grow to 28 million tonnes by the end of 2013.
Our zinc in concentrate production in 2013 is expected to be in the range of 560,000 to 590,000 tonnes compared with 598,000 tonnes in 2012 as Red Dog's production is expected to decrease by approximately 15,000 tonnes. Refined zinc production from our Trail metallurgical complex in 2013 is expected to be in the range of 280,000 to 290,000 tonnes compared with 284,200 tonnes in 2012.
Capital Expenditures
Our forecast of approved capital expenditures for 2013 is expected to be approximately $2.0 billion and is summarized in the following table:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Major New Mine($ in millions) Sustaining Enhancement Development Total----------------------------------------------------------------------------Copper $ 265 $ 360 $ 530 $ 1,155Coal 265 80 120 465Zinc 195 20 - 215Energy - - 110 110Corporate 20 - - 20---------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 745 $ 460 $ 760 $ 1,965----------------------------------------------------------------------------
