Analyst Loe agrees: "Moreover, the capital markets are ascribing virtually no value to future royalties that we project Tekmira will receive for long-standing liposomal vincristine formulation Marqibo (originally called ONCO-TCS when tested in advanced non-Hodgkin's lymphoma by Inex years ago). Partner Talon Therapeutics received FDA approval in a niche cancer market (Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia, or ALL) for this drug in Aug/12, for which we project peak annual royalty revenue (and EBITDA) to Tekmira of $3.5 million - $4 million. Timelines to achieving peak annual royalties clearly await completion of Talon's now-public intention to identify strategic partners or acquirers for the firm, but we believe interested parties once identified will regard Marqibo as a core commercial asset within Talon's drug portfolio."
Yesterday, Roberto Pedone of TheStreet.Com also noticed that shares Tekmira company appear to have begun hammering out new lows. He noted: "From a technical perspective, TKMR is bouncing strongly here right off its 50-day moving average of $4.95 with above-average volume. This stock is quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit once TKMR takes out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $5.35 to $5.78 with high volume. At last check, TKMR have hit an intraday high of $5.45 and volume is just starting to surpass its three-month average action of 61,738 shares."
The RNAI sector is definitely starting to heat up again. Tekmira doesn't need to raise money, so for us it is just a question of when, not if, institutions start piling into the market to take a position.
Author M.E. Garza is Long TKMR. The full version of his report, including charts and informational graphics, can be found here:
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