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What if Dell Goes Private?

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If Dell can keep generating sizable amounts of cash from its business, then it should be able to handle the interest burden easily.

The low stock price means the total price of doing the deal is less. That means investors don't have to borrow as much money. It also means there is potentially more profit to be made if and when the company goes public again several years from now.

And just what would Dell do to make itself more valuable?

Analysts expect the company will keep working on the business transformation that it has been working on for the past five years.

It has spent more than $12 billion acquiring more than two dozen technology companies, some of which are expected to become engines driving new growth as Dell tries to become a formidable one-stop-shop for information technology, or IT, advanced hardware, software and services needed by large and mid-sized businesses. Those kinds of products and services generally generate much stronger profit margins than do PCs.

In short, Dell has been trying to become a lot more like IBM Corp., the established kingpin of IT that has developed broad, deep and profitable business relationships with thousands of business customers worldwide.

Dell also has ties to thousands of business customers, but many of those relationships aren't nearly as broad and deep as it wants them to be. So the company is busy adding more sophisticated IT capabilities in order to create deeper, more profitable, ties to its customers.

Dell isn't changing on a whim. It is reacting to a profound movements in computing, which have diminished the traditional value of and spending on desktop and laptop personal computers. Those products continue to generate close to 70 percent of Dell's revenue, but they are no longer as profitable.

More businesses are adding smart mobile devices -- smart phones and tablets -- to add to the capabilities of their workers. Dell is weak in those product areas, although it has recently added a new family of business-oriented tablets based on Microsoft Corp. software.

Businesses also are pushing into new more cost-effective ways of handling information, such as cloud computing, where companies can rent computing capacity they need every month rather than buy expensive hardware. Dell is pushing hard to become a stronger player in cloud computing and related services.

Dell's stock price declined in 2012 because the company posted lackluster results in a weak personal computer market. Asian competitors, including China's Lenovo Group and Taiwan's AsusTek Computer, outmuscled Dell for sales of low-end computers. Some analysts expect Dell's revenue will drop by more than 8 percent and its profit will drop by more than 20 percent for the fiscal year that ends this month.

Despite those declines, Dell so far has remained profitable and has generated strong cash flow from its operations.

How would Dell change as a private company? The best bet, analysts say, is that it will be able to make changes more rapidly and more secretively than a publicly held company can. It also would have to pay far less attention to what the Wall Street investment community thought about its business. Michael Dell's main responsibility would be to satisfy his other investors, most of whom would sit with him on the company's new board of directors.

"It would allow them to move more quickly to make the changes they want to make," said analyst Patrick Moorhead, with Moor Insights & Strategy.

"In the best case, they come into the private garage," the analyst added. "They get everything in order and they move more quickly than before and more secretively. Then they start taking business away from competitors like Hewlett-Packard Co., IBM Corp. and Cisco Systems. The perception about Dell starts changing. They keep taking more business away from the competition. And then they go public again.

"People need to see how they are hurting the competition."

How would going private affect the company's operations in Central Texas?

Probably not that much.

Dell has grown in recent years to a sizable company with about 109,000 workers worldwide last year. But analysts say the company doesn't carry much fat. Its workforce in Central Texas is primarily tied to product engineering, sales, marketing, administration and some limited manufacturing for servers.

For the most part, those sorts of jobs would still be needed in the private company. If Dell decides to drop out of the consumer PC business however, it might need slightly fewer product engineers, fewer marketing workers and fewer sales people.

Of course, not all buyouts turn out well.

Some become overburdened by debt and go bankrupt. Others have to go through massive reorganizations to cut costs.

If Michael Dell wants a picture of a buyout deal that ran into trouble, he need only look 30 miles south from his company's Round Rock headquarters to Freescale Semiconductor Holdings in Southwest Austin.

"Freescale is a prime example of a deal that didn't go well," Moorhead said. "We have a company that is worth about half of what it was supposed to be worth and that is just covered in debt."

Freescale has new management and new growth strategies, but the company has endured painful restructurings and shed thousands of jobs over the past several years.

And even now, six years after the buyout, it remains burdened by heavy debt.

Even if Dell cratered as a private company, Michael Dell would remain a rich man. His nearly 16 percent share of Dell Inc.'s stock -- worth about $3.5 billion -- represents only about one quarter of his estimated total wealth.

But, if the roof falls in on the company, other workers might not be so fortunate. Some unsuccessful buyout deals have wound up in bankruptcy court with massive business restructurings and job losses.

If the buyout works out as well as hoped, Michael Dell could be richer still.

"I am sure he has been thinking about this for years," Moorhead said. "He is well tied to the investment markets. And he has a sixth sense for what value is."


For more stories covering the world of technology, please see HispanicBusiness' Tech Channel



Source: (c)2013 Austin American-Statesman, Texas Distributed by MCT Information Services


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