taking some serious steps in relations with Russia. Unofficially,
Obama continued to demonstrate his intentions to improve relations
with Moscow," Markov said.
Markov believes that changes in Georgia were a major indicator of
Obama's positive attitude. "There is a new government in Georgia now
and [President] Mikheil Saakashvili, who is hostile to Russia, does
not control it. The USA banned the Georgian president from
disrupting or rigging the elections, as well as persecuting the
opposition and in particular [current Prime Minister Bidzina]
Ivanishvili. Moreover, the Obama administration played a positive
role, saying that that it would welcome the restoration of
diplomatic relations between Moscow and Tbilisi. This would have
reduced tension in the region," Markov said.
"On issues such as missile defence, it was difficult for Obama to
take any action because he was under severe public pressure. Now the
pressure goes away and the re-elected president will have more
opportunities to improve relations with Russia. Some positive signs
from Moscow would help Obama greatly," the analyst said.
"Obama's earlier promises to make some progress in missile
defence issues and his re-election to the post of US president make
us hope for on a certain improvement in relations between Moscow and
Washington," president of the Centre for Political Technologies
foundation Igor Bunin said.
"Some time ago Obama promised that even the issue of missile
defence might be easier solved after his re-election. So relations
should improve," Bunin told Interfax.
Obama's victory is the result of his good luck and maturity of
the American voters, president of the Council for Foreign and
Defence Policy of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies Sergei
Karaganov believes.
"In my view, Obama's victory is a miracle. The fact that he has
won shows, first, that he is lucky, and, second, that the Americans
are grown-up people. Despite all the difficulties, they have elected
a reasonable president, a more reasonable one," the official said.
Speaking about Russian-American relations, the political analyst
said that to a large extent they would depend on Moscow's position.
"Much will depend on Russia. If Russia is perceived as a waning
power, then pressure might increase. If not, then I think there will
be cold and practical cooperation," Karaganov said.
Director of the Russian and Asian Programmes of the US Centre for
Defence Information Nikolay Zlobin believes that Russian-American
relations will continue to deteriorate after Obama's victory.
"If Obama wins, Russian-American relations will not change and
will continue getting worse," Zlobin told RIA Novosti news agency.
The expert believes that the potential for improvement in Russian-
American relations is pretty much exhausted, and those issues that
were not solved in the framework of the reset policy will get worse.
According to Zlobin, the diplomatic language between Moscow and
Washington may soften during Obama's second term.
"A softer language will be used for Obama," the expert said.
However, relations with Russia will continue to worsen as Russian-
US economic relations are negligent, Zlobin said. "Neither country
receives any economic benefit from the relationship. They are
concerned only about the military and political aspect and therefore
are very vulnerable to any political or international crisis,"
Zlobin said.
Since in the Middle East and in the question of missile defence
in Europe compromises have been exhausted, relations between Moscow
and Washington will continue to deteriorate, he said.
At the same time Zlobin is sure that it will be easier for Moscow
to talk with Obama as he already promised to be more flexible with
the Kremlin.
President of the Effective Policy Foundation Gleb Pavlovskiy
said: "The 'reset' policy has played its role in only one aspect: it
moved Russian-American relations from an almost pre-war status in
2008 under George Bush Jr to a stable situation in which dialogue
and even sometimes a compromise are possible. But it is unlikely
that the reset policy will really continue. It served its purpose
and I do not think that it will be emphasized."
Pavlovskiy believes that the problem of missile defence might
become a subject of trade between Russia and the USA in the event of
a political conflict.
"As far as missile defence, this problem will be seen entirely
different now. It ceased to be so acute as it was for the USA four
years ago. Now it can be an interesting bargaining chip. If America
makes concessions, it will now try to achieve something and get
something in return," the analyst said.
President of the Politika foundation Vyacheslav Nikonov sees no
signs that Obama's policy towards Russia will change.
"In the end, the same institutional and personal factors which
are present in the policies of the American administration will be
in place," Nikonov said.
Nikonov believes that no radical breakthrough can be expected on
missile defence. He stressed that the USA is quite careful in
cooperation on this issue even with its allies. On the contrary,
according to the analyst, in the near future there may be problems
between the USA and Russia when US Congress will start considering
repealing the Jackson-Vanik amendment and passing the Magnitsky law.
"So, most likely, the start will not be very favourable," Nikonov
said.
"Cooperation is possible on many issues, including Afghanistan,
where we continue to work together, in efforts to stop proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction, cooperation in a number of space
projects, and projects in nuclear energy," the expert said.
Director of Moscow Carnegie Centre Dmitriy Trenin believes that
Russia and the USA should move to a strategic partnership
Speaking on radio Ekho Moskvy, he said that Russia needs
qualitatively new relations with the USA to successfully carry out
modernization not only in the economy but also in other areas.
There is no doubt that now US Congress will pass the Magnitsky
law, political scientist Mark Urnov told radio Ekho Moskvy.
"Obama has been elected, and now he does not have to fear
Russia's criticism on this matter. It is impossible to stop Congress
from voting on the Magnitsky law," Urnov said.
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News Column
Russian Pundits Differ on Future Relations with USA
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Source: (C) 2012 BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union. via ProQuest Information and Learning Company; All Rights Reserved
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