spending that would automatically follow an improving economy, would
make a major difference.
There are issues that must be addressed regarding health care
costs and Medicare, the government-subsidized health care program
for older Americans, as well as the fact that there will be fewer
workers for each retiree as the baby boomers retire. But those who
see a Greece-type crisis in the United States should ask themselves
why the government can borrow at interest rates that remain
extraordinarily low. The world's trust in Uncle Sam's ability to pay
its debts has remained high.
What is not high are taxes, although a poll would no doubt show
that many people think otherwise.
Taxes imposed by the U.S. government, relative to the size of the
economy, are significantly lower than they were after President
Ronald Reagan cut taxes. During 2012, revenue amounted to about 17
percent of gross domestic product. At the Reagan low point, the
figure was a full percentage point higher. In 2009, when the deficit
was ballooning, the figure fell to less than 16 percent, something
that had happened only once during the more than 60 years for which
comparable data are available.
In 2000, revenue approached 21 percent of G.D.P. The assumption
that it would continue to grow played a major role in the forecasts
of budget surpluses as far as the eye could see. In 2001, aides to
President George W. Bush pointed to the figure as proof that
Americans were overtaxed.
It turned out tax revenue figures were inflated in two ways by
the bull market in technology stocks. Not only were there a lot of
capital gains to be taxed, but soaring share prices also produced a
lot of ordinary income for those employees and executives who could
cash in stock options.
At the time, it was assumed that such options had no significant
effect on tax revenue, because the income that went to the employee
provided an offsetting tax deduction for the company that issued the
options. That might have been true had the companies been paying
taxes, but many of the most bubbly stocks were in companies that had
never paid -- and never would pay -- a dollar in income taxes.
That revenue would have come down sharply after the technology
stock bubble burst even without the Bush tax cuts. But those tax
cuts exacerbated the situation and are a major cause of the current
deficits.
It might be interesting to consider what would have happened in
the 2012 presidential campaign had either candidate been willing to,
as the former presidential contender Adlai Stevenson II once said,
"talk sense to the American people."
In reality, neither candidate would have dreamed of saying, as an
economist did a week ago: "Ultimately, unless we scale back
entitlement programs far more than anyone in Washington is now
seriously considering, we will have no choice but to increase taxes
on a vast majority of Americans. This could involve higher tax rates
or an elimination of popular deductions. Or it could mean an
entirely new tax, such as a value-added tax or a carbon tax."
It would have been only a little more likely to hear a candidate
say, as another economist said after the fiscal deal was reached,
"We need a tax system that can promote economic growth and raise the
revenue the American people want to devote to government."
The first quote came from a column in The New York Times by N.
Gregory Mankiw, an economist at Harvard University. The second
statement was made W. Glenn Hubbard, the dean of the Columbia
University Business School, in New York, and the chairman of the
president's council of economic advisers when the Bush tax cuts were
enacted. He went on to say, a Times article reported, that some Bush-
era policies were no longer relevant to the task of tailoring a tax
code to a properly sized government.
Mr. Mankiw and Mr. Hubbard were among the top economic advisers
to Mr. Romney. If they advised him to make similar statements during
the campaign, he did not take the advice.
"Fiscal negotiations might become a bit easier if everyone
started by agreeing that the policies we choose must be constrained
by the laws of arithmetic," Mr. Mankiw added, in a statement that
every member of Congress should take to heart.
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News Column
Fiscal Crisis Postponed: Now It's Time to Rethink Taxes
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Source: (C) 2013 International Herald Tribune. via ProQuest Information and Learning Company; All Rights Reserved
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