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Hodson wouldn't comment on how the group came to its conclusion after it and other anti-Obama groups spent upward of $10-million on TV advertising in Michigan so far this year.

Michael Traugott, with the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, said it almost certain comes down to what private polls are showing the Republican-leaning groups and where Romney has the best chance of competing.

"That's really the issue," he said. "Would the money do better in other states than it would in Michigan."

The new poll appears to bear that out, giving Obama a larger lead on Romney that he has nationally -- which recent polls have put at anywhere from 1% to 7% -- and better off than he was in 2008 in Michigan at this stage of the race, when he led Republican nominee John McCain with a margin in the low-to-mid single digits.

Going forward, Michigan could be dropped from the list of battleground states expected to be hotly contested. Recent polls show the closest matchups in: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Some pundits had already moved Michigan into their "lean Democrat" or "lean Obama" column.

"We don't consider Michigan one of those (swing) states," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington, D.C-based political handicapping publication.

That's not to say, however, that it's over for Romney in Michigan. For one, he can't afford to narrow his options for winning the Electoral College map -- and with 16 electoral votes, Michigan remains one of the bigger players.

For another, Romney's ties to Michigan mean it's nearly impossible -- and possibly foolhardy -- for his campaign to even consider a publicized pullout from the state as executed four years ago this October by John McCain's presidential campaign, a move that even his running mate, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, questioned.

Romney's late father George was a popular three-term governor of Michigan and Mitt Romney still has close familial ties in the state. His brother Scott lives in Bloomfield Hills, where he and Mitt were raised. Any sign that the campaign were abandoning Michigan would be seized by Democrats as a key loss for Romney -- especially sicnce he has little chance of winning Massachusetts, where he served as governor and still lives.

Katie Packer Gage, Romney's deputy campaign manager and a Michigan native born in Detroit and raised there and in Southfield, told the Free Press earlier this week -- before the new poll was released -- that the campaign has no intention of abandoning the state.

"There are a whole lot of states that present a lot of opportunities for us and Michigan is one of those states," she said, noting that the campaign recently opened its 22nd grassroots organizing center in the state, compared to 11 for Obama's campaign.

Romney campaign officials have said all week that they expected Obama to get a bounce in the polls from the Democratic convention but that they expect that to fade as well.

A Republican hasn't won Michigan's electoral college votes since George H.W. Bush in 1988. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by a landslide 16 percentage points, and few would have expected such a result this year.

But Obama clearly has advantages in Michigan, the largest being his administration's pumping billions of dollars into GM and Chrysler, which have since returned to profitability. The U.S. Treasury still owns about one-third of GM -- and the most recent figures show the government could lose $25-billion on the bailout.

Democrats have argued that price is worth the one million jobs they say the auto rescue saved nationwide.

Romney argued against any bailout when it first came up in late 2008 and has maintained that government wasted money while it waited to run the companies through a managed bankruptcy and delivered deals that helped union workers at the expense of bondholders and dealers.

"I really didn't like the way Romney was talking about General Motors," said Jeff Pirlot, 50, of Grosse Ile, who is leaning toward voting for Obama. "If you're from Michigan, you should have supported that."

Romney's best chance at making Michigan competitive again -- especially since neither he nor his independent supporters are running TV ads in the state -- may be the three fall presidential debates, the first set for Oct. 3 in Denver.

For their part, Obama's campaign avoided spending precious campaign dollars on TV advertising in Michigan, even as Crossroads and others were doing so this spring and summer. The president himself hasn't visited Detroit for months, leaving that to Vice President Joe Biden and others.

Lou Thierwechter, 73, of Allegan, is sticking by Romney, saying his fiscal conservativism is what the country needs right now.

"Romney understands how money is generated so that it can be spent properly," said Thierwechter, a former Allegan County commissioner. "In order to spend it, you have to first create it and I think Mr. Romney is much better at it than Mr. Obama."