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"The Fed," he says, "has one bullet left, and they want to wait as long as possible to use it."

The Fed's next policy meeting is Sept. 12-13. If the central bank fails to announce a new round of stimulus, as it did after its recently concluded August meeting, markets could be disappointed.

2. Election: Obama or Romney?

The run-up to the presidential election is a time of great uncertainty, as it's tough for investors to gain any strong insight into which policies might be put in place until a likely winner emerges.

The final makeup of Congress is also critical to the policy puzzle. The balance of legislative power can shift dramatically if one party gains control of both branches of Congress. (The Republicans, who now control the House of Representatives, have a 50/50 shot in November of seizing power in the Senate, too, according to Intrade, an online prediction market.)

"The presidential election results are intertwined with the markets and the economy," wrote LPL Financial's chief market strategist Jeffrey Kleintop in a report titled "Campaign 2012: What the Elections Hold for Investors." "The economy is affected by fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy -- all of which are influenced by the election winner."

Which tax laws, trade policies and banking regulations get enacted could differ markedly if the Republicans sweep the White House and Congress, or if President Obama wins a second term but must deal with a Republican-controlled Congress.

Since World War II, stocks have suffered losses only three times in election years, according to LPL. Rallies tend to get stronger as Election Day nears and policy clarity improves.

The S&P 500 has risen 81% of the time since 1944 in the fourth quarter of election years, says S&P Capital IQ.

This year's elections are particularly important. Lawmakers are under great pressure to come up with a fix for the nation's crushing debt load or risk another credit downgrade from ratings agencies -- and a vote of no-confidence from investors. Congress also must act to avoid the U.S. falling over the so-called fiscal cliff, a growth-crimping combination of higher taxes and spending cuts.

3. Fiscal cliff: Over the edge or close call?

A budget bombshell is looming on Jan. 1, 2013, when -- barring a vote by a deeply divided Congress to extend them -- the Bush tax cuts and temporary payroll tax cuts will expire. Nearly $100 billion in automatic government spending cuts also kick in.

All told, the economy could be hit with a fiscal drag of more than $500 billion, or roughly 3.5% of GDP, the Congressional Budget Office says.

"The approaching fiscal cliff is big, scary, yet avoidable," says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC.

It must be avoided if the economy and markets are to avoid harm. The CBO says falling off the fiscal cliff would cause a recession in the U.S. in the first half of 2013. It would also cause turbulence in financial markets, and damage consumer and business confidence, as well as reduce profits earned by U.S. companies.

Those negative outcomes are a big reason Wall Street expects lawmakers to compromise to avoid fiscal-cliff pain.

But a deal might not be struck until after the election, says Daniel Clifton, a policy analyst at Strategas Research Partners.

4. Europe: Break up or make up?