HispanicBusiness

In a forecast he just released, Tsopeis predicts planemakers will deliver 736 business jets this year.

That number is predicted to grow at 17 percent a year through 2016, when demand will peak.

Tsopeis projects a slowdown in 2017, but a slowdown that's softer than the downturn that began in late 2008.

He projects deliveries for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021 to total 10,377 planes, with $265?billion in revenues, based on 2012 pricing.

Cessna is expected to lead in market share with 27.5 percent, while Bombardier will lead in revenue with 29.3 percent over the 10-year period, he said.

The forecast predicts demand for 3,244 light jets, 3,264 medium jets, 3,557 large jets and 312 airliners converted to business aircraft.

The years 2015 to 2017 represent the largest three-year cluster for new program activity, the forecast said.

Here's what Tsopeis sees for local manufacturers.

Bombardier

Overall, Bombardier is one of the best manufacturers in terms of its product lines, Tsopeis said.

They have mature programs that help with improved margins and products attractive to emerging markets.

The Learjet line is on good footing, he said.

Upgrading the 40 and 45 to the 70 and 75 allows the company to keep the traditional Learjet customer base.

But, he said, "I think the star is going to be the Learjet 85. I think it's going to bring a lot of new customers into Learjet."

The performance envelope of the 85 is at the high end for a traditional midsize aircraft, Tsopeis said.

Cessna

Within the past year, Cessna has announced a number of new products, such as the M2, Latitude and Longitude.

Those will be easy programs for Cessna to deliver.

"They're relying on a tried and true formula, which is incremental upgrades that are technologically very doable," Tsopeis said.

Every business jet program in every category is on solid footing, he said. "I think they're in good shape."

The only question is what Cessna plans to do with its Citation XLS+ and whether it will incrementally upgrade it or develop a new design.

With Learjet developing the Learjet 75, "it ups the ante on Cessna to come up with something new or at least newer," Tsopeis said. "That's a huge moneymaker for them, and they need to address it."

But the company is taking the approach to do upgrades and derivative products, he said, "so maybe a new wing and Garmin flight deck might just do it."

Hawker Beechcraft

It's too soon to say whether Hawker Beechcraft will emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a stand-alone company or sell to Superior Aviation Beijing or another party.

As a stand-alone company, it has the opportunity to emerge as the world's leading turboprop manufacturer, Tsopeis said.

That would do justice to its King Air and Beechcraft lines.

To do that, the company would have to shutter its business aviation programs, he said.

Hawker Beechcraft filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy May 3.

The company has also entered into an exclusivity arrangement with Superior Aviation Beijing to explore a potential sale of the company for $1.79 billion.

It would not include the defense business.

The deal with Superior is far from done, but it does require Superior to fund operations during the 45-day exclusivity period.

That leads Tsopeis to believe the further into the time period the parties go, the more likely a deal will get done.

A sale is a good opportunity or attempt at keeping the company largely intact.

"I think it would be a very good scenario," Tsopeis said. "Is it the best scenario? No. We all would like somebody from North America to step up and buy the company. ... But I don't think that's going to happen."

With Superior, there surely will be some pull of the production line back to China.

Still, Tsopeis said, "I think the Chinese are interested in learning about the industry more than they are moving a production line from Wichita where you have generations of aerospace workers and that expertise. To forego that and move it to China and reset all those learning curves on those difficult programs doesn't make sense."