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Cisco's VNI Forecast Projects the Internet Will Be Four Times as Large in Four Years

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Global IP Traffic and Device Highlights:

Total Global IP Traffic in "Bytes"

•Global IP traffic is expected to reach 1.3 zettabytes per year or 110 exabytes per month by 2016, nearly a fourfold increase from approximately 31 exabytes per month in 2011. •Average global IP traffic in 2016 is expected to reach 150 petabytes per hour, the equivalent of 278 million people streaming an HD movie (at an average streaming speed of 1.2 Mbps) simultaneously.

Regional IP Traffic Trends

•By 2016, the Asia Pacific region is forecast to generate the most IP traffic (40.5 exabytes per month), maintaining the top spot over North America (27.5 exabytes per month), which generated the second most amount of traffic. •The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2011-2016) are the Middle East and Africa (58 percent compound annual growth rate, for 10-fold growth), and Latin America (49 percent CAGR, sevenfold growth). •For fastest-growing IP traffic at the country level, India is expected to have the highest IP traffic growth rate with a 62 percent CAGR from 2011 to 2016. In a second-place tie, Brazil and South Africa both have 53 percent CAGRs over the forecast period. •By 2016, the highest traffic-generating countries will be the United States (22 exabytes per month) and China (12 exabytes per month).

Major Growth Driver: Consumer Video

•Globally, there are expected to be 1.5 billion Internet video users by 2016, up from 792 million Internet video users in 2011.

Global Device Growth

•By 2016, the Index forecasts there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections -- almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth. •In 2011, PCs generated 94 percent of consumer Internet traffic. This contribution is expected to fall to 81 percent by 2016 -- demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of devices like tablets, smartphones, etc. are having on how consumers and businesses access and use the Internet. •By 2016, TVs are expected to account for over 6 percent of global consumer Internet traffic (up from 4 percent in 2011), and 18 percent of Internet video traffic (up from 7 percent in 2011) -- demonstrating the impact of Web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers.

IPv6 Capable Devices and Connections

•Globally, the index suggests there will be 8 billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices in 2016, up from 1 billion in 2011; and •Globally, 40 percent of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10 percent in 2011.

3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)

•Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase five times between 2011 and 2016.

Mobile Broadband

•Global mobile Internet data traffic is forecast to increase 18 times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually).

Global File Sharing

•By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic is projected to account for 54 percent of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down from 77 percent in 2011. On a quantity basis, however, the amount of peer-to-peer traffic is expected to increase from a rate of 4.6 exabytes per month in 2011 to 10 exabytes per month by 2016.

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