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the popularity of unconventional politicians such as New Jersey's blunt-spoken Republican governor, Chris Christie, or Elizabeth Warren, Harvard professor, Democratic contender for the Senate and scourge of Wall Street and the financial industry.

The rebellious mood also helps to explain the weird contest for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination: the refusal to embrace the eminently qualified Mitt Romney and the flirtation with a string of alternatives, including the erstwhile pizza magnate Herman Cain, whose appeal, it would seem, not even a sexual harassment scandal can diminish.

The election is still a year off, and its outcome utterly unpredictable. In normal times, an approval rating of barely 45 percent and polls showing 75 percent of Americans believe the country is "on the wrong track" would spell big trouble for Obama. But, as the old sports adage runs, you can't beat somebody with nobody.

One thing, however, is sure. In this dark American moment, the stage is set for a populist. It could be the incumbent president, lashing heartless Republicans for their pandering to the rich. It could be a Republican who convinces his countrymen that Obama is leading the country to ruin. Or could a third-party candidate somehow become the outlet for the general exasperation with the status quo?

Don't write off the notion entirely. After all, the eccentric Ross Perot launched his candidacy only six months before election day in 1992, and won almost 20 percent of the vote -- in an age when America's problems were a 10th of what they are today. One way or another, 2012 could yet be the "watershed" election that 2008 was not.

RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

REPUBLICANS

JANUARY

9 Iowa caucus

14 Nevada caucus

17 New Hampshire primary

21 South Carolina primary

31 Florida primary

FEBRUARY

7 Colorado and North Dakota caucuses; Georgia and Missouri primaries

21 Wisconsin primary

28 Arizona and Michigan primaries

MARCH

6 Idaho caucus; Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Vermont primaries

10 Guam, Kansas, and Virgin Islands caucuses

13 Hawaii caucus; Alabama and Mississippi primaries

20 Illinois primary

24 Louisiana primary

APRIL

3 Washington DC and Maryland primaries

24 Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island primaries

MAY

8 Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia primaries

15 Nebraska and Oregon primaries

22 Arkansas, Idaho and Kentucky primaries

JUNE

5 California, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries

12 Ohio primary

26 Utah primary

AUGUST

40th National Republican Convention in Florida

DEMOCRATS

SEPTEMBER

3 National Convention, Charlotte, North Carolina

NATIONAL

NOVEMBER

6 Election of the President of the United States

REPUBLICAN FRONT-RUNNERS

MITT ROMNEY

Governor of Massachusetts 2003-7. Ran for president in 2008, and now one of the two front-runners. Wants to lower corporate income tax, repeal Obamacare, cut public spending. Reputation as flip-flopper. Pro-life. Mormon.

HERMAN CAIN

Ex-CEO of Godfathers pizza chain, and outsider who has leapt into lead. Revelations that he was once accused by two women of sexual harassment have not derailed campaign so far. Opposes government intervention in the economy through stimulus and bailouts, proposed much-criticised 9-9-9 flat tax plan which has helped his rise.

RICK PERRY

Governor of Texas 2000-now. Supports minimal government low taxes and low spending, and repeal of Obamacare. Does not believe in gay marriage. Strongly pro-life. Never lost an election.