respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that
stated within this release, regarding the individual company data
collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and
should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in
decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives
nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is
diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross
domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support
Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics &
Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals;
Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products;
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment;
Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products
such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys
and office supplies).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month
compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New
Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production,
Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and
Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the
net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic
direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the
negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier
Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are
never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive
responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered
positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for
seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier
Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the
effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from
normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional
arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All
seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of
Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when
conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the
seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with
equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries
and Inventories.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are
convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change
and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that
the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent
indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42 percent,
over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross
domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42 percent, it is
generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42 percent is
indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the
indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point
between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as
determined by regression analysis.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current
month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for
which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital
Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies,
expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six
months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average
number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not
seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.
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News Column
December Manufacturing Data Points to Growth
Page 8 of 8
Source: Copyright (c) Business Wire 2011
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