News Column
Story Tools

Boeing Stock Slumps for Second Day

July 25, 2008

James Wallace--Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Boeing Stock Slumps for Second Day

Shares in The Boeing Co. took their biggest tumble in a month Thursday, a day after the company failed to impress Wall Street with a less-than-stellar earnings report.

Boeing declined $4.19, or 6.3 percent, which followed a drop of 3.7 percent Wednesday when it announced disappointing earnings for the second quarter. Boeing shares are only pennies from trading at their 52-week low of $62.05.

Although stocks in general ended lower Thursday, Boeing's sharp drop mostly was attributed to a well-regarded industry analyst cutting his rating.

Cowen & Co. analyst Cai von Rumohr lowered his rating on Boeing's stock to "neutral" from "outperform."

"While Boeing looks cheap at a 9.9 times 2009 price/earnings multiple, it could be dead," he said in a note to clients.

Another analyst, Douglas Harned of BernsteinResearch, cut his 12-month target price on Boeing shares to $83, down from $92, because of what he described as increased pressure on Boeing's jetliner business.

And David Strauss of UBS Investment research said in a report that the 787 delays that hurt Boeing's financial performance in the second quarter "will remain a risk for some time to come." His target price for Boeing's stock is $65 a share.

"Given the length of the delay, 787 program costs have obviously gone up significantly, (and) there will likely be some spillover costs prior to first delivery in late 2009," Strauss wrote.

In its second-quarter earnings report, Boeing said its jetliner business earned 19 percent less than a year ago, even though the company delivered 11 percent more jets. Earnings declined to $777 million, down from $960 million a year ago.

Boeing said some of the loss was from increased costs for its 787 program, which is now about 14 months late.

"About $75 million to $100 million of the second-quarter's commercial profit 'miss' resulted from the latest 787 schedule slip," von Rumohr wrote to investors.

Von Rumohr and other analysts also worried about the 787 ramp up. He said commercial margins may be affected through 2010. Boeing has said it will deliver 25 planes by the end of next year. That's down from 112 planes that Boeing once thought it could deliver, but there are still uncertainties whether Boeing can meet its 787 schedule.

Other concerns, he said, included talks between the company and its two big unions.

Contracts with the unions that represent Boeing's white-collar workers as well as the mechanics that assemble its jetliners expire later this year. The Machinists union, which has struck Boeing a number of times before, is demanding a better contract than in 2005 when the union walked out for a month. The union membership recently approved a strike if the talks fail.

After hitting a 52-week high last year of $107.83 a share, Boeing's stock price began to tumble after it announced in October the first of three embarrassing delays for its 787. Some customers won't get their planes for up to three years beyond the initial delivery date Boeing promised. Industry analysts also are worried that Boeing and Airbus could lose a significant chunk of their order backlog as airlines cut back on capacity to save money on record-high fuel prices and cancel or defer orders.

So far, Boeing has had only a few order deferrals, and all from U.S. airlines, which account for only 10 percent of that backlog. But in a conference call with media and analysts Wednesday, Boeing Chairman and Chief Executive Jim McNerney acknowledged that some customers might cancel their orders. But he said other customers would quickly take any delivery slots that open in order to get more efficient jets sooner.



Source: (c) 1998-2007 Seattle Post-Intelligencer. All Rights Reserved.


Story Tools