News Column
Story Tools

Quarterly Economic Forecast: Retail and Service Sectors Hold The Line

June 30, 2008

Dr. Juan B. Solana--Chief Economist, Hispanic Business Inc.

HB's Quarterly Economic Forecast

    No Related Stories at this time!

The Hispanic Businesses 500, which contains some of the nation's most dynamic and well-established firms, saw a worrisome 0.6 percent decline in total revenues in 2007. A review of the 2007 economic accomplishments of the 500 largest Hispanic companies suggests that Wall Street's failings were significantly impacting Main Street in 2007.

Sectors In The HB500 Aligned With Sectors In The Whole U.S Economy

Examining the HB500 sector by sector, it is the construction industry that has been hit the hardest for two years in a row, with a 23 percent decrease in revenues. The financial sector trailed behind construction with a 5.4 percent decline. Recently released 2007 data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on the performance of U.S. industries point to the same two sectors as the larger contributors to the slowdown of the U.S economy. Nationwide, construction's value-added declined by 12.1 percent in 2007, while finance and insurance industries' value-added fell 0.3 percent in 2007.

Similarly, the sectors with better performances in 2007 according to BEA data -- retail and services -- also reported 2007 revenue gains in the Hispanic Business 500, up 14.1 percent and 9.1 percent respectively.

Payrolls Falling, Unemployment Rising

Although nationwide payroll employment decreased by 20,000 in April, it follows job losses that totaled 240,000 in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The weak labor market has resulted in reduced employment for Hispanics. During the past year, only 145,000 Hispanics found jobs out of the more than 500,000 actively seeking.

The graph below shows a 36 percent increase in unemployment of Hispanics while the United States as a whole increase just 11 percent. Most of this loss was a result of faltering employment trends in manufacturing, construction, and retail, as well as weakness in the economies of California, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, and New York.

Government Solutions Fall Short

As our survey of Hispanic Business 500 companies shows, the deterioration in economic activity is extending to companies and employees, beyond the financial sector. Consumption, once the more resilient component of the U.S. economy, is also sinking. The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index (released April 25) dropped to 62.6 in April -- the lowest level in 26 years -- from 69.5 in March. Washington is relying too much on its $152 billion stimulus package, which may not compensate for a deteriorating $9.9 trillion U.S. consumer market. In April, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee once again lowered the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent. That same month, the International Monetary Fund issued its annual World Economic Outlook and kept its current forecast of a dismal growth for the U.S. economy of 0.5 percent in 2008 and 0.6 percent in 2009.
For further insights and information on the HB 500, visit:
www.hispanicbusiness.com/hb500/



Source: HispanicBusiness.com (c) 2008. All rights reserved.


Story Tools