A new study published by
Modeling Short Range Ballistic Missile Defense and
The study examines the previous
1. The Israeli military claimed to have intercepted 83% of urban-bound rockets in 2014, slightly lower than 2012's 87%.
2. If Iron Dome worked as claimed, then it prevented about 1778 Israeli casualties in 2012, and 525 in 2014, more than the savings from airstrikes against rocket launchers. This made an invasion of
3. If instead its interception rate was as low as critics argue, then the system made little impact.
4. Imperfect rocket categorization by the Iron Dome systems could partly explain the differences between the supporters' and critics' estimates of the interception rates.
6. Counterbattery fire by the militants against Iron Dome sites would not have been worthwhile given the rockets' low accuracy.
7. System success depends on the number of simultaneous inbound missiles. As salvo sizes increase, losses first rise slowly, but then climb drastically. The better the batteries perform, the larger that jump will be.
8. The rocket fire was 34% less accurate this year than in the previous conflict. Only 21% of rockets hit towns or were intercepted along the way in 2014, versus 32% in 2012.
9. Iron Dome reduced human losses from rocket hits, but not economic losses from rocket threats. In 2012 Israel lost
10. After 2012,
• What could have caused the rocket fire accuracy and interception success rate to be lower this year than in the prior conflict?
• Why do the economic costs and losses differ between 2012 and 2014, and what do they suggest about missile defense?
• What do defense planners and political leaders need to keep in mind when relying on this kind of interception system?
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Read the full story at http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/09/prweb12137350.htm
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