"We believe another delay in the Bombardier CSeries entry-into-service is inevitable, increasingly likely before 2014 year-end, and could even occur whenever flight tests resume,"
The CSeries commercial jet has been grounded for more than three months since an engine failure halted its flight test program.
But the CSeries development program is two years behind schedule, with the flight test phase often proving the most challenging for any new aircraft.
The Goldman anticipates the plane will be more than six months behind Bombardier's plan to deliver the smaller CS100 version with 110 to 125 seats during the second half of 2015. It's an outlook shared by many other analysts.
He said the plane and its larger CS300 version with up to 160 seats plane will "negatively impact"
The plane requires 2,400 flight test hours for certification but has flown just 300 hours. Poponak said Bombardier will have to dramatically pick up the pace of flight tests to 160 hours per month to achieve its delivery schedule.
"We see that as very unlikely given the pace achieved before grounding, momentum (not just time) lost during grounding, and the high risk of new problems occurring other than this engine incident," he wrote in a report.
The analyst added that the size and quality of the CSeries orders suggest overall demand may not be strong with a significant risk of deferrals and cancellations.
Bombardier has received 203 firm orders and 513 overall commitments for the airplane. It hopes to have 300 firm orders by first delivery.
"Even though the company has adequate liquidity to fund its operations, ongoing cash burn in the last few years could put the company’s liquidity position at risk," it wrote last week, adding that a downgrade could happen with further CSeries delays.
But Canaccord Genuity analyst
He cautions that Bombardier's improvement may unfold slowly but doesn't believe Malmo's decision will change prospects for the plane.
"So, our buy call is best for patient investors," he wrote, adding that the CSeries should be a positive catalyst in the coming year.
Tyerman said he expects other CSeries customers will either take Malmo's slots or the delivery schedule will start more slowly than originally planned.
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