The study showed that the working age population in the age group of 15 to 64 in the
In all the Gulf countries working age population grew strongly in the last 15 years. While
Moody's expect that the demographic dividend that drove economic growth in many countries in the past will turn into a demographic tax that will ultimately slow this growth for most countries worldwide.
"Demographic transition, frequently considered a long-term problem, is upon us now and will significantly lower economic growth," said
According to Moody's by next year, more than 60 per cent countries it rates will be officially "aging".
By 2020, the number of Â€˜super-aged' societies will increase to 13 globally from three today. The UN defines populations with more than 20 per cent elderly as "super-aged". By 2030, 34 countries will be super-aged.
The unprecedented pace of aging will have a significant negative effect on economic growth over the next two decades across all regions. The global working-age population will grow nearly half as fast through 2030 as during the previous 15 years (by only 13.6 per cent compared to 24.8 per cent).
Pressures on labour supply
All Gulf countries including the
All countries, except a handful in
Population aging will also reduce household savings rates, which will reduce investment. Academic estimates indicate that a one percentage point (pp) rise in the old age dependency ratio (the ratio of population aged 65+ to the population 15-64) will lead to a 0.5-1.2 percentage point decline in the average savings rate.
These developments will lead to significantly lower economic growth. In a sample of 55 developed and emerging market economies. "Aging will reduce aggregate annual economic growth by 0.4 per cent in 2014-19 and by a much larger 0.9 per cent in 2020-25.Aging is not just a developed-world problem. Many emerging market countries are already classified as aging, such as
Policy reforms in the medium term that improve labour participation, spur immigration in a country, and encourage financial inflows can partially mitigate the impact of aging on economic growth. Innovation and technological progress that improve labour productivity and human capital can also dampen the effects of the rapid demographic changes on economic growth over the long term.
Most Popular Stories
- U.S. Families 'Extraordinarily Vulnerable': Yellen
- Larry Ellison Steps Down as Oracle CEO
- Alibaba Prices IPO at $68 a Share
- Apple Locks Itself Out of Devices
- Hillary Clinton to Address CHCI Conference
- Veterans to Get Training as Solar Panel Installers
- Hispanics Doubt Marco Rubio's Chances
- Wildfires Rage in California
- John Cantlie Delivers ISIS Message to Save Life
- Alibaba: Today China, Tomorrow the World