ENP Newswire -
Release date- 18082014 - In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the
The main findings are:
The Bank's latest forecasts, included in the Inflation Report, were bullish. GDP growth is expected to be 3.5% this year and the unemployment rate to fall to less than 6% by the end of the year. Spare capacity was cut to 1% of GDP. The Bank also halved their wage growth forecast to 1.25% for 2014.
The ONS reported that annual earnings growth had weakened further in 2014Q2 (total earnings were down 0.2%, whilst regular pay was only 0.6% higher), but these figures are vulnerable to compositional changes. Pay settlements have been about 2-21/2%.
Whilst the February version of the Bank's 'forward guidance' (interest rate rises linked to spare capacity and other 'economic developments') is still the official version of 'forward guidance', dovish
The ONS confirmed that GDP rose by 0.8% in 2014Q4.
Eurozone GDP in 2014Q2 was flat ('stable'), reflecting a 0.2% fall in German GDP, flat French GDP and a 0.2% fall in Italian GDP. There were calls for the ECB to 'do more' to stimulate the Eurozone economy by, for example, embarking on QE.
For full story: http://www.arbuthnotgroup.com/economic_perspectives_group.html
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