PNG Volumes Offer Glimpse of Asian Future a Different Import Mix
What the new PNG supplies will do to the
Storage on the Mark, but Prices Fall Again
Last week's EIA update revealing an 82 BCF week-on-week increase in gas stocks aligned closely with market expectations centered on ~83 BCF -- a rare feat this injection season which has seen many outsized market "misses" to the high and low sides. Indeed, today's report marks only the third time this season the EIA and the market consensus have been within +/- 2 BCF of one another.
Ukraine Tension Provides Support to an Otherwise Bearish Market
PIRA does see the danger to European gas supply from the current crisis in
U.S. Awash in Potential Natural Gas Supply
PIRA's long-term gas production forecasts are grounded in external assessments of technically recoverable resources (TRR). The EIA appears to be extraordinarily conservative in its recently published estimates of shale gas TRRs, and has taken a similarly cautious approach with respect to its projections of U.S. medium-term gas demand and supply growth. PIRA sees Lower 48 production growing twice as fast as the EIA between 2013 and 2019, led initially by associated and wet non-associated production gains. Toward the end of the decade, a rising call on supply led by the industrial sector and LNG exports likely will require contributions from higher cost sources of production.
Another U.S. Gas Production Surge
Abnormal weather continues to be the center of attention with respect to U.S. gas balances. But the EIA's latest monthly update provides striking evidence of U.S. gas production strength, even in the face of nominal gas drilling and increasing price weakness across the Northeast due to Appalachia. October is a useful reference point to gauge overall production trends because of Appalachia's customary 4Q takeaway capacity additions. Between
Indian Gas Price Set to Increase Only Partially
The Indian oil ministry is looking at a reduced increase in price for all domestic natural gas but wants
Improving Hydro Balances Undermine Nordic Power Prices
Nordic winter prices have been trending lower, mirroring an improvement in the expected hydro balances. This trend has occurred while Continental prices moved in the opposite direction, as a result of a firming fuel pricing complex.
U.S. Coal Market Forecast
An El NiÑo summer across the eastern U.S. along with robust gas production has depressed natural gas prices and power demand, limiting the call on coal stocks. SUB stocks have also been reinforced via coal and gas substitution. Upcoming winter weather concerns are fading. With lower y/y gas prices, coal demand is in harm's way in 2015.
Supply Fears in Atlantic Basin Boost Pricing
Coal pricing moved higher last week, reversing the losses made in the prior week. Price gains for API#2 (
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