News Column

Exploring the future of UK energy

July 10, 2014



Where will we get our energy from over the next 20 years, and how will we use it? These are key questions not just for the energy industry, but for society as a whole.

National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios aims to give expert insight into these questions and considers a range of possible energy futures.

Future Energy Scenarios maps four potential futures for the energy sector, to 2020, 2030 and beyond. The scenarios take into account differing policy and economic landscapes and consider the impact they might have upon energy supply and demand.

Richard Smith, Head of Energy Strategy and Policy, National Grid, said:

"In our role at the centre of the energy industry, National Grid has a unique insight into the trends shaping the energy landscape.

"It's really important that we have an open and transparent discussion about where we get our energy from and how we use it.

"Our Future Energy Scenarios document aims to help that dialogue, presenting a range of holistic, plausible and credible scenarios that can help our customers and stakeholders make informed decisions."

Key highlights from the report include:

Gas imports: A failure to invest in UK gas production could see import dependency rise to 90% by 2035.

Shale gas: Under a 'Low Carbon Life' scenario, with economic prosperity and regulatory certainty, indigenous shale gas could provide over a third of our gas supplies in 2035.

Electric vehicles: There could be as many as 5.4 million electric vehicles on the nation's roads by 2035. We assume most will charge overnight due to time of use tariffs.

Domestic lighting: All homes could benefit from energy-efficient lighting, reducing demand from domestic lighting from 14TWh in 2012 to as low as 6TWh in the late 2020s and early 2030s.

Domestic heat; Almost six million homes could get their heat from domestic heat-pumps by 2030, if performance of heat pump technology continues to improve and is supported by strong government policy and incentives.

Contact for media information only:

Mark Malbas

National Grid Media Relations

+44 (0)1926 655291

mark.malbas@nationalgrid.com

Out of hours duty press officer:

+44 0845 366 6769

Notes

The four Future Energy Scenarios:

Gone Green is a world of high affordability and high sustainability. The economy is growing, with strong policy and regulation and new environmental targets, all of which are met on time. Sustainability is not restrained by financial limitations as more money is available at both an investment level for energy infrastructure and at a domestic level via disposable income.

Slow Progression is a world of low affordability and high sustainability. Less money is available compared to Gone Green, but with similar strong focus on policy and regulation and new targets. Economic recovery is slower, resulting in some uncertainty, and financial constraints lead to difficult political decisions. Although there is political will and market intervention, slower economic recovery delays delivery against environmental targets.

No Progression is a world of low affordability and low sustainability. There is slow economic recovery in this scenario, meaning less money is available at both a government and consumer level. There is less emphasis on policy and regulation which remain the same as today, and no new targets are introduced. Financial pressures result in political volatility, and government policy that is focused on short term affordability measures.

Low Carbon Life is a world of high affordability and low sustainability. More money is available due to higher economic growth and society has more disposable income. There is short term volatility regarding energy policy and no additional targets are introduced. Government policy is focused on the long term with consensus around decarbonisation, which is delivered through purchasing-power and macro policy.

National Grid is one of the largest investor-owned energy companies in the world. We own and manage the grids that connect people to the energy they need, from whatever the source. In Britain and the north-eastern states of the US we run systems that deliver gas and electricity to millions of people, businesses and communities.

In Britain, we run the gas and electricity systems that our society is built on, delivering gas and electricity across the country. In the North Eastern US, we connect more than seven million gas and electric customers to vital energy sources, essential for our modern lifestyles.

In the UK:

We own the high-voltage electricity transmission network in England and Wales, operating it across Great Britain

We own and operates the high pressure gas transmission system in Britain

Our gas distribution business delivers gas to 11 million homes and businesses

We also own a number of related businesses including LNG importation, land remediation and metering

National Grid manages the National Gas Emergency Service free phone line on behalf of the industry - 0800 111 999 (all calls are recorded and may be monitored).

Our portfolio of other businesses is mainly concerned with infrastructure provision and related services where we can exploit our core skills and assets to create value. These businesses operate in areas such as Metering, Grain LNG Import, Interconnectors and Property.

National Grid Carbon Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of National Grid and it undertakes Carbon Capture Storage related activities on behalf of National Grid.

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Source: M2 PressWIRE


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