Where will we get our energy from over the next 20 years, and how will we use it? These are key questions not just for the energy industry, but for society as a whole.
Future Energy Scenarios maps four potential futures for the energy sector, to 2020, 2030 and beyond. The scenarios take into account differing policy and economic landscapes and consider the impact they might have upon energy supply and demand.
"In our role at the centre of the energy industry,
"It's really important that we have an open and transparent discussion about where we get our energy from and how we use it.
"Our Future Energy Scenarios document aims to help that dialogue, presenting a range of holistic, plausible and credible scenarios that can help our customers and stakeholders make informed decisions."
Key highlights from the report include:
Gas imports: A failure to invest in
Shale gas: Under a 'Low Carbon Life' scenario, with economic prosperity and regulatory certainty, indigenous shale gas could provide over a third of our gas supplies in 2035.
Electric vehicles: There could be as many as 5.4 million electric vehicles on the nation's roads by 2035. We assume most will charge overnight due to time of use tariffs.
Domestic lighting: All homes could benefit from energy-efficient lighting, reducing demand from domestic lighting from 14TWh in 2012 to as low as 6TWh in the late 2020s and early 2030s.
Domestic heat; Almost six million homes could get their heat from domestic heat-pumps by 2030, if performance of heat pump technology continues to improve and is supported by strong government policy and incentives.
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The four Future Energy Scenarios:
Gone Green is a world of high affordability and high sustainability. The economy is growing, with strong policy and regulation and new environmental targets, all of which are met on time. Sustainability is not restrained by financial limitations as more money is available at both an investment level for energy infrastructure and at a domestic level via disposable income.
Slow Progression is a world of low affordability and high sustainability. Less money is available compared to Gone Green, but with similar strong focus on policy and regulation and new targets. Economic recovery is slower, resulting in some uncertainty, and financial constraints lead to difficult political decisions. Although there is political will and market intervention, slower economic recovery delays delivery against environmental targets.
No Progression is a world of low affordability and low sustainability. There is slow economic recovery in this scenario, meaning less money is available at both a government and consumer level. There is less emphasis on policy and regulation which remain the same as today, and no new targets are introduced. Financial pressures result in political volatility, and government policy that is focused on short term affordability measures.
We own the high-voltage electricity transmission network in
We own and operates the high pressure gas transmission system in
Our gas distribution business delivers gas to 11 million homes and businesses
We also own a number of related businesses including LNG importation, land remediation and metering
Our portfolio of other businesses is mainly concerned with infrastructure provision and related services where we can exploit our core skills and assets to create value. These businesses operate in areas such as Metering, Grain LNG Import, Interconnectors and Property.
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