News Column

Today's Trading Plan: Just a Half Day Today

July 2, 2014

Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update:

Asian markets traded 0.1% lower. European markets are trading 0.1% lower.

US futures are trading flat ahead of the market open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30), Employment Situation (8:30), International Trade (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), PMI Services Index (9:45), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), NYSE Early Close (1pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

Today is only a 1/2 day of trading. Equities will stop trading at 1pm eastern. The markets will be closed tomorrow for the Fourth of JulyVolume will be extremely light today. Yesterday's was also very light due to the holiday. In this type of pre-holiday market, you have to take any moves in individual stocks with a grain of salt. Breakouts could easily lead to a head fake. SPX and other indices will likely churn sideways with no real conviction. Good to see follow through on the previous day's breakout of the bull flag. Very possible that after some consolidation, that SPX makes a run for 2000. VIX dropped 3% down to 10.82.For the bears to make any kind of impression on this market, they need to start with breaking price below the 10-day moving average. That moving support level has provided substantial support over the last two weeks.Textbook bull flag pattern on SPX 30-minute chart. Very little reason to be short this market at this juncture.Important support is at 1944, as a break of that price level would establish a new lower-low.The rising trend-line off of 4/14/14 currently sits at 1933. The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Trades:

Closed out FB for a 1.9% gain yesterday. Closed out RF for a -0.9% loss yesterday.Added one new long position yesterday. Likely to be low-key on this 1/2 day of trading. Volume will be light and setups will be difficult to trust. Remain long FB at 66.63, CX at 13.22, AAPL at 91.49, XLNX at 47.34.60% Long / 40% CashJoin me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-3-14

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Source: Shareplanner

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