News Column

2014-15 CWB PROs Lower for Wheat and Canola; Durum Higher

July 24, 2014



WINNIPEG, Manitoba, July 24 -- The Canadian Wheat Board issued the following news release:

CWB today released its Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2014-15 pools and Futures Choice pools. Compared to the last PRO release in June, projected returns for the Early Delivery Pools are $12 per tonne higher for durum, while projected returns for wheat and canola are $24 and $29 per tonne lower, respectively. For the Annual Pools, projected returns for durum are $8 per tonne higher, compared to projected returns for wheat and canola which are $23 and $30 per tonne lower, respectively. Projected returns for the wheat and canola Winter Pools are $22 and $31 per tonne lower, respectively, while durum projected returns are $10 per tonne higher. Malt barley and field peas projected returns remain unchanged across all pools.

Click here to view table (http://www.cwb.ca/news/104/2014-15-cwb-pros-lower-for-wheat-and-canola;-durum-higher)

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including CWB's pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary

2014-15 pools

Wheat

Wheat futures prices continue to move downwards as a result of harvest pressure from Europe and Black Sea regions and abundant global supplies. Overall, crop conditions in U.S. Corn Belt are excellent, while much of Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan crops have suffered from excess moisture. Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the December 2014 contract through to December 2015 are in the range of $6.25 to $6.75 per bushel, respectively, which are down significantly from the last PRO release.

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2014-15 Futures Choice Pools can expect to achieve a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the December 2014 futures value they lock in plus zero dollars per tonne for Early Delivery Pool and minus two to four dollars per tonne for the Annual and Winter pools.

Durum

The durum market continues to strengthen as quality concerns plague the durum crops in Europe as a result of untimely rains. In the previous month harvest delays were experienced in Italy and Greece due to excess moisture and since then areas of the French durum crop have also received heavy precipitation. Mediterranean and European demand are expected to remain strong in the coming months.

Malting barley

PRO values for malt barley remain unchanged.

Canola

Canola prices continue to be pressured by the prospect of overall record supplies of grain and oilseeds amid looming record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. Heavy rainfalls over Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan in the past month have resulted in some production loss. However, domestic (crush) and offshore (China) demand remains strong. Current canola futures for the November 2014 contract through to July 2015 are in the range of $435 to $445 per tonne, which are down $35 per tonne from the June PRO release.

Field Peas

PRO values for field peas remain unchanged.

General pool assumptions:

* Canadian dollar at 93 cents versus the U.S. dollar.

* Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.

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Source: Targeted News Service


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