News Column

Gold bugs push bubble

July 16, 2014

By Darana Chudasri, Bangkok Post, Thailand

July 16--Gold prices could waver from US$1,100 to 1,450 an ounce throughout the year as a result of global factors, says the Gold Research Center.

The centre said the gold investment outlook improved after the coup, but the price is expected to be highly volatile because of increasing demand in China and Russia in the second half.

However, Kamoltun Pornphaisarnvichit, the centre's director, said for a three-month period gold prices might peak at $1,380-1,400 an ounce, or 21,000 baht per one-baht weight, on the assumption the baht stays at 30.8 to 32 per US dollar.

"We expect the gold price may rise to $1,400 an ounce in the next three months if the geopolitical tension in Iraq increases," said Mr Kamoltun.

The centre's Gold Price Sentiment index for July increased by 23.31% to 56.14 points from 45.53 points in June. The sentiment for the next three months also improved by 12.39% or 7.04 points to 63.18 points.

"Gold investors and traders agree a crisis in Iraq could drive prices up," said Mr Kamoltun.

The market is worried that tension in the Middle East may affect oil and energy prices, as Iraq is a major oil exporter. Gold is a hedge against inflation for investors as it is expected to rise in line with oil prices.

Gold prices peaked at $1,345 on July 10 on expectations the US interest rate would stay low.

"China clearly prefers to boost its gold reserves from 3% while reducing its US dollar reserves to tame higher risks from currency exchange fluctuations. Russia has accumulated 20 tonnes of gold over the past few months," said Mr Kamoltun.

SPDR Gold Shares, the leading exchange-traded fund for trading gold, began accumulating gold assets again. In June the fund bought 15 tonnes, raising its gold assets to 808.28 tonnes.


(c)2014 the Bangkok Post (Bangkok, Thailand)

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Source: Bangkok Post (Thailand)

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