--Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+';
--Senior unsecured revolving credit facility (RCF) at 'A+';
--Senior unsecured debt at 'A+';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper (CP) rating at 'F1'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable. Fitch's action affects approximately
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The ratings and Outlook reflect IBM's:
--Strong company profile primarily supported by i) significant revenue market share in information technology (IT) services (No.1), servers (No.3), enterprise software (No.1) and external storage (tied for No.3); ii) solid recurring revenue (49%) from IT services, software and financing that mitigates revenue and profit volatility; and iii) highly diversified revenue base by offering, customer, industry and geography (65%+ revenue outside U.S.).
--Strong financial flexibility due to i) robust internal liquidity with a significant cash position (
--Well-executed management strategy, including i) ability to identify early trends that present significant higher margin, long-term growth opportunities and reposition investment priorities, both organic and inorganic, to capitalize on these opportunities (i.e. analytics); ii) consistent and sizable investments in R&D (6% of revenue) to develop innovative differentiated solutions that leverage IBM's entire portfolio of offerings and command higher profit margins; iii) core competency in identifying and integrating strategic acquisitions; iv) track record of strengthening strategic focus and profitability by divesting low margin businesses.
Rating concerns center on:
--Risk of core debt (non-financing) increases to achieve financial and/or business objectives (i.e. IBM's 2015 EPS target of at least
Fitch notes IBM maintains significant incremental debt capacity at the current credit ratings. Core leverage was 0.6x at
--Increasing pace of cloud adoption will likely pressure the growth rates for certain of IBM's traditional businesses, particularly traditional software and infrastructure outsourcing business. IBM's ability to capture emerging opportunities across cloud, analytics, mobile and social, particularly solutions with higher customer value, is critical to achieving revenue growth and at least maintaining profitability. Fitch believes slower industry growth for traditional IT products and services could lead to more aggressive pricing in the absence of long-term industry consolidation.
--Consistent, material increases in cash dividends long-term, which could pressure FCF and financial flexibility in the absence of commensurate growth in profitability. This could necessitate further increases in core debt to fund acquisitions and/or share repurchases.
--IBM's dependence on mainframe (System Z) refresh cycles to maintain profitability in the
Declining demand for UNIX-based Power systems also adversely affects the profitability of STG's microelectronics business, which designs and manufactures the Power microprocessors used in Power servers. The decline in UNIX server demand also carries negative longer-term revenue and margin ramifications for IBM's support services and financing businesses relating to Power servers.
STG profitability will benefit from the successful sale of IBM's x86 business to Lenovo, which is expected to close in the second half of 2014, assuming regulatory approval. IBM's x86 business generated
--The long-term threat to highly profitable mainframe demand and associated operating system software (zOS) from converged ISS solutions. IBM's gross profit dollars from mainframes were flat on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) basis in the past 10 years, exemplifying the resiliency and evolution of the platform.
Fitch believes the company's lack of a strategic rationale to maintain a higher rating at the expense of financial flexibility required for acquisitions or shareholder-friendly activities limits further positive rating actions.
The ratings may be downgraded in the event of:
--A shift to more aggressive financial policies. Sustained core leverage in excess of 1.25x may result in negative rating actions.
--Greater than anticipated revenue erosion and/or profitability pressures within IBM's traditional recurring core franchises that are not offset by growth in strategic imperatives, resulting in a material, sustained deterioration in credit protection metrics.
IBM has strong financial flexibility and liquidity supported by approximately
Fitch expects IBM to continue to use FCF for acquisitions, particularly in the software and services industries, share repurchases, albeit at a decreased rate in the second half of 2014, and dividend payments to shareholders.
The underfunded status of IBM's worldwide defined benefit (DB) pension plans was negative
Excluding unfunded nonqualified DB pension plans, the funded status of IBM's U.S. and worldwide plans at year-end 2013 was 109% and 102%, respectively. In 2014, IBM is required to make legally mandated contributions of
Fitch believes IBM has more than ample liquidity to satisfy its longer-term legally mandated pension funding requirements (estimated at approximately
Total debt was
For the purpose of financial evaluation, Fitch analyzes IBM's core business and financing activities separately, since they are capitalized differently and have dissimilar cash flow characteristics. IBM Global Finance (IGF) accounted for nearly 11% of IBM's pre-tax earnings in 2013. This, however, represents the largest component of IBM's balance sheet, constituting approximately 24% of total assets and 27% of total liabilities as of
Total leverage as of
The main purpose of IGF is to facilitate clients' acquisition of IBM systems, software and services by providing financial and capital management solutions. IGF has a solid long-term operating record, provides strategic advantages to IBM in terms of attracting and retaining customers by delivering total solutions. IBM also generates an annuity-like revenue stream associated with multi-year leases.
IGF's primary focus on IBM's products and clients mitigates some risks associated with financing via a deep knowledge of its client base and clear insight into the solutions being financed. Asset quality metrics have remained relatively solid as a result of the relatively conservative underwriting culture and strong risk management capabilities. IGF's capitalization remains solid for the rating category and leverage levels continue to hover near management's target of 7x.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
--'Corporate Rating Methodology' (
Corporate Rating Methodology - Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage
Source: Fitch Ratings
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