News Column

EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus

June 2, 2014

Michael Boutros

Talking Points



  • EURUSD weekly/monthly opening range in focus
  • Risk of near-term recovery heading into June trade
  • Major event risk on tap from Europe & US this week



    EURUSD Weekly Chart

    EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus





    EURUSD Daily Chart

    EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus



    Technical Outlook



  • EURUSD Monthly opening range taking shape between 200DMA and May low
  • Support 1.3586 - break targets objectives at 1.3520/32, 1.3476- bullish invalidation
  • Resistance 1.3640- break targets 1.3740- bearish invalidation
  • Daily RSI break sub-40 last month for the first time this year- bearish
  • Key Event Risk Ahead- ECB Rate Decision on Thursday and US Non-farm Payrolls on Friday





    EURUSD Scalp Chart

    EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus



    Notes: The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape heading into major event risk for the EURUSD later this week. The range in focus is defined by the May low and the 200DMA at 1.3885 -1.3640 and we'll look for a break of this range to offer conviction on a near-term directional bias. Note that near-term RSI divergence heading into last month's low has our immediate focus higher against 1.3585 with a topside trigger pending heading into the close of US trade.





    * It's extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.



    Key Threshold Grid



    Entry/Exit Targets

    Timeframe

    Level

    Technical Relevance

    Resistance Target 1

    30min

    1.3620

    Soft Resistance / Asia ORL

    Bearish Invalidation

    Daily / 30min

    1.3640

    200DMA / Weekly ORH

    Break Target 1

    Daily / 30min

    1.3673/81

    61.8% & 23.6% Retrace(s) / April Low

    Break Target 2

    30min

    1.3710

    Feb 2013 High

    Break Target 3

    Daily / 30min

    1.3733/40

    5/19 Weekly High / 38.2% Retrace / 100DMA









    Bullish Invalidation

    Daily / 30min

    1.3585

    May Low / 78.6% Retracement

    Break Target 1

    30min

    1.3560

    61.8% Retrace / Swing Low 2/12

    Break Target 2

    Daily / 30min

    1.3520/32

    38.2% & 23.6% Retracement(s) / Dec Low

    Break Target 3

    Daily / 30min

    1.3480

    2014 Low / Oct 2013 Low / 2012 High









    Average True Range

    Daily (20)

    59

    Profit Targets 15-17pips









    *ORH: Opening Range High

    *ORL: Opening Range Low



    Other Setups in Play:



  • AUDNZD Testing 2014 Range Highs- 1.09 Key Resistance
  • GBPUSD Scalps Selling Rallies into May Range Lows- Key Support 1.6750
  • GBPNZD Scalps Target May Opening Range Break- Bullish Above 1.96
  • AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300
  • GBPAUD Scalps Target Key Resistance- Bullish Above 1.7920
  • USDOLLAR, Gold Setups Target Key Resistance- Breakouts Pending
  • NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50




















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    Source: DailyFx


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