KEY RATING DRIVERS
BCO's ratings reflect its leading market share in nearly every market it serves; strong operating profile that provides a relatively stable top-line performance; solid financial flexibility; and low leverage. Although the recent devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar and the company's use of the SICAD II exchange rate will pressure profitability in the near term, Fitch expects North American operating profitability to be slightly higher in 2014 than 0.5% realized in 2013, and going forward, technology investments could provide further benefits to the company's margin performance.
Rating strengths include a strong operating profile, solid financial flexibility, and low leverage. BCO's cash logistics business is expanding outside the cash-in-transit (CIT) segment to higher-margin service products, which will increase BCO's exposure to these markets while maintaining the stability realized in CIT volumes. Fitch expects normalized EBITDA margins (Fitch defined) to creep towards 10% in the intermediate term following the pressure experienced in 2014.
BCO has historically maintained a relatively conservative capital structure, with minimal debt on its balance sheet. As a result, BCO's lease-adjusted leverage (total adjusted debt/EBITDAR) is relatively low at 2.72x as of
Rating concerns include the substantial portion of the company's liquidity held outside the U.S., BCO's current level of North American profitability, and potential business risk if the company chooses to re-enter the home-security market. On the last point, although the 'Brink's' name is still recognized within the home-security industry, re-entering the business could add to near-term pressure on credit protection metrics.
BCO generated approximately 82% of its revenues outside of the U.S. in 2013, which is a concern, given that much of its debt has been raised in the U.S. and is denominated in U.S. dollars. Fitch views BCO's liquidity as adequate for the rating category, although the mismatch of cash flow generation and debt obligations is a risk. Offsetting this somewhat is BCO's ability to repatriate cash from its non-U.S. operations (excluding cash in
BCO maintains solid financial flexibility with adequate liquidity totaling
As noted above, BCO's North American profitability has lagged some of its competitors that have invested more heavily in technology and have been more aggressive in revising employee compensation structures. BCO is currently addressing these issues, which could lead to higher profitability more in line with these competitors over the intermediate term. Fitch believes that the technology investments can yield meaningful profitability improvements, as similar systems are used in other transportation-related industries, such as environmental services and less-than-truckload trucking.
Due to the Venezuelan devaluation and specific accounting nuances, BCO's financial results are likely to weaken in 2014. In late
BCO does not have any material debt maturities until its revolver matures in 2017. Fitch believes outstanding revolver borrowings could possibly be termed out with additional bank debt or another private placement, similar to the one issued in 2011. However, greater-than-expected USD cash generation or increased repatriation of overseas cash could potentially delay the need for a debt issuance in the intermediate term. BCO's first quarter 2014 draw on its revolver was due to seasonal cash flow fluctuations and Fitch expects it to be repaid throughout the remainder of 2014.
Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a positive rating action include:
--Maintaining lease-adjusted leverage (total adjusted debt/EBITDAR) below 2.0x;
--Maintaining an FCF margin between 4%-5%;
--North American operating profit increasing above 5% for an extended period.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--An increase in lease-adjusted leverage to above 3.25x for an extended period;
--Producing persistently negative FCF;
--An inability to repatriate non-U.S. cash in a timely and effective manner, if needed;
--Large debt-funded acquisitions or shareholder friendly activities.
Fitch assigns BCO's ratings as follows:
The Brink's Company
--Unsecured revolving credit facility rating 'BBB-';
--Unsecured private placement notes rating 'BBB-'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
--'Corporate Rating Methodology: Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage',
Corporate Rating Methodology - Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage
Source: Fitch Ratings
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