News Column

MGIC INVESTMENT CORP - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

May 9, 2014

Overview

Through our subsidiaries MGIC and MIC, we are a leading provider of private mortgage insurance in the United States, as measured by insurance in force, to the home mortgage lending industry.

As used below, "we" and "our" refer to MGIC Investment Corporation's consolidated operations. The discussion below should be read in conjunction with "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013. We refer to this Discussion as the "10-K MD&A." In the discussion below, we classify, in accordance with industry practice, as "full documentation" loans approved by GSE and other automated underwriting systems under "doc waiver" programs that do not require verification of borrower income. For additional information about such loans, see footnote (3) to the composition of primary default inventory table under "Results of Consolidated Operations-Losses-Losses incurred" below. The discussion of our business in this document generally does not apply to our Australian operations which have historically been immaterial. The results of our operations in Australia are included in the consolidated results disclosed. For additional information about our Australian operations, see our risk factor titled "Our Australian operations may suffer significant losses" and "Overview-Australia" in our 10-K MD&A.

Forward Looking and Other Statements

As discussed under "Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors" below, actual results may differ materially from the results contemplated by forward looking statements. We are not undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements or other statements we may make in the following discussion or elsewhere in this document even though these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after the forward looking statements or other statements were made. Therefore no reader of this document should rely on these statements being current as of any time other than the time at which this document was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Outlook

Since 2008, substantially all of the loans we insured have been sold to the GSEs, which have been in conservatorship since late 2008. When the conservatorship will end and what role, if any, the GSEs will play in the secondary mortgage market post-conservatorship will be determined by Congress. The scope of the FHA's large market presence may also change in connection with the determination of the future of the GSEs. There are also pending regulatory changes that could affect demand for private mortgage insurance; see our risk factor titled "The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if the definition of Qualified Residential Mortgage results in a reduced number of low down payment loans available to be insured or if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance." Furthermore, capital standards for private mortgage insurers are being revised; see "Capital" below. While we strongly believe private mortgage insurance should be an integral part of credit enhancement in a future mortgage market, its role in that market cannot be predicted.

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Capital

GSEs

As mentioned above, since 2008 substantially all of our insurance written is for loans sold to the GSEs, each of which has mortgage insurer eligibility requirements to maintain the highest level of eligibility. The existing eligibility requirements include a minimum financial strength rating of Aa3/AA-. Because MGIC does not meet such financial strength rating requirements (its financial strength rating from Moody's is Ba3 (with a stable outlook) and from Standard & Poor's is BB (with a positive outlook)), MGIC is currently operating with each GSE as an eligible insurer under a remediation plan. We believe that the GSEs view remediation plans as a continuing process of interaction with a mortgage insurer and MGIC will continue to operate under a remediation plan for the foreseeable future. The GSEs may include new eligibility requirements as part of our current remediation plan. There can be no assurance that MGIC will be able to continue to operate as an eligible mortgage insurer under a remediation plan.

The GSEs previously advised us that, at the direction of their conservator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency ("FHFA"), they will be revising the eligibility requirements for all mortgage insurers. We expect the revised eligibility standards to include new counterparty financial requirements (the "GSE Counterparty Financial Requirements"). Prior to publicly releasing the draft of the revised eligibility requirements, the FHFA is allowing state insurance regulators a period of time in which to review them on a confidential basis. After considering any changes suggested by the state insurance regulators, the FHFA is expected to release the draft eligibility requirements for public input, which could occur as early as the second quarter of 2014. We have not been informed of the content of the new eligibility requirements, their timeframes for effectiveness, or the length of the public input period.

We have various alternatives available to improve our existing risk-to-capital position, including contributing additional funds that are on hand today from our holding company to MGIC, entering into additional external reinsurance transactions, seeking approval to write business in MIC and raising additional capital, which could be contributed to MGIC. While there can be no assurance that MGIC would meet the GSE Counterparty Financial Requirements by their effective date, we believe we could implement one or more of these alternatives so that we would continue to be an eligible mortgage insurer after the GSE Counterparty Financial Requirements are fully effective. If MGIC (or MIC, under certain circumstances) ceases to be eligible to insure loans purchased by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our new business writings.

State Regulations

The insurance laws of 16 jurisdictions, including Wisconsin, our domiciliary state, require a mortgage insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to the risk in force (or a similar measure) in order for the mortgage insurer to continue to write new business. We refer to these requirements as the "State Capital Requirements" and, together with the GSE Counterparty Financial Requirements, the "Capital Requirements." While they vary among jurisdictions, the most common State Capital Requirements allow for a maximum risk-to-capital ratio of 25 to 1. A risk-to-capital ratio will increase if (i) the percentage decrease in capital exceeds the percentage decrease in insured risk, or (ii) the percentage increase in capital is less than the percentage increase in insured risk. Wisconsin does not regulate capital by using a risk-to-capital measure but instead requires a minimum policyholder position ("MPP"). The "policyholder position" of a mortgage insurer is its net worth or surplus, contingency reserve and a portion of the reserves for unearned premiums.

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In 2013, we entered into a quota share reinsurance transaction with a group of unaffiliated reinsurers that reduced our risk-to-capital ratio. At March 31, 2014, MGIC's risk-to-capital ratio was 15.3 to 1, below the maximum allowed by the jurisdictions with State Capital Requirements, and its policyholder position was $519 million above the required MPP of $1.0 billion. Although the reinsurance transaction was approved by the GSEs, it is possible that under the GSE Counterparty Financial Requirements, discussed above, and/or the revised State Capital Requirements discussed below, MGIC will not be allowed full credit for the risk ceded to the reinsurers under the transaction. If MGIC is disallowed full credit, MGIC may terminate the transaction, without penalty, when such disallowance becomes effective. At this time, we expect MGIC to continue to comply with the current State Capital Requirements, although we cannot assure you of such compliance.

In November 2013, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners ("NAIC") presented for discussion proposed changes to its Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act. In connection with that, the NAIC announced that it plans to revise the minimum capital and surplus requirements for mortgage insurers, although it has not established a date by which it must make proposals to revise such requirements. Depending on the scope of the revisions made by the NAIC, MGIC may be prevented from writing new business in the jurisdictions adopting such proposals.

Qualified Residential Mortgages

The financial reform legislation that was passed in July 2010 (the "Dodd-Frank Act" or "Dodd-Frank") requires lenders to consider a borrower's ability to repay a home loan before extending credit. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ("CFPB") rule defining "Qualified Mortgage" ("QM") for purposes of implementing the "ability to repay" law became effective in January 2014. There is a temporary category of QMs for mortgages that satisfy the general product feature requirements of QMs and meet the GSEs' underwriting requirements (the "temporary category"). The temporary category will phase out when the GSEs' conservatorship ends, or if sooner, after seven years. In May 2013, the FHFA directed the GSEs to limit their mortgage acquisitions to loans that meet the requirements of a QM under the ability to repay rule, including those that meet the temporary category, and loans that are exempt from the "ability to repay" requirements. We may insure loans that do not qualify as QMs, however, we are unsure the extent to which lenders will make non-QM loans because they will not be entitled to the presumptions about compliance with the "ability to repay" requirements that the law allows lenders with respect to QM loans. We are also unsure the extent to which lenders will purchase private mortgage insurance for loans that cannot be sold to the GSEs.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development ("HUD") definition of QM that applies to loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration ("FHA"), became effective in January 2014. HUD's QM definition is less restrictive than the CFPB's definition in certain respects, including that (i) it has no limit on the debt-to-income ratio of a borrower, and (ii) it allows the lender certain presumptions about compliance with the "ability to repay" requirements on higher priced loans. It is possible that lenders will prefer FHA-insured loans to loans insured by private mortgage insurance as a result of the FHA's less restrictive QM definition.

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Given the credit characteristics presented to us, we estimate that approximately 87% of our new risk written in 2013 and 84% of our new risk written in the first quarter of 2014 was for loans that would have met the CFPB's general QM definition. We estimate that approximately 99% of our new risk written in 2013 and in the first quarter of 2014 was for loans that would have met the CFPB's QM definition, when giving effect to the temporary category. In making these estimates, we have not considered the limitation on points and fees because the information is not available to us. We do not believe such limitation would materially affect the percentage of our new risk written meeting the QM definitions.

The Dodd-Frank Act requires a securitizer to retain at least 5% of the risk associated with mortgage loans that are securitized, and in some cases the retained risk may be allocated between the securitizer and the lender that originated the loan. This risk retention requirement does not apply to mortgage loans that are Qualified Residential Mortgages ("QRMs") or that are insured by the FHA or another federal agency. In 2011, federal regulators released a proposed risk retention rule that included a definition of QRM. In response to public comments regarding the proposed rule, federal regulators issued a revised proposed rule in August 2013. The revised proposed rule generally defines QRM as a mortgage meeting the requirements of a QM. The regulators also proposed an alternative QRM definition ("QM-plus") which utilizes certain QM criteria but also includes a maximum loan-to-value ratio ("LTV") of 70%. Neither of the revised definitions of QRM considers the use of mortgage insurance for purposed of calculating LTV. While substantially all of our new risk written in 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 was on loans that met the QM definition (and, therefore, the proposed general QRM definition), none of our new insurance written met the QM-plus definition. The public comment period for the revised proposed rule expired in October 2013. The final timing of the adoption of any risk retention regulation and the definition of QRM remains uncertain. Because of the capital support provided by the U.S. Government, the GSEs satisfy the Dodd-Frank risk-retention requirements while they are in conservatorship. Therefore, lenders that originate loans that are sold to the GSEs while they are in conservatorship would not be required to retain risk associated with those loans.

The amount of new insurance that we write may be materially adversely affected depending on, among other things, (a) the final definition of QRM and its LTV requirements and (b) whether lenders choose mortgage insurance for non-QRM loans. In addition, changes in the final regulations regarding treatment of GSE-guaranteed mortgage loans, or changes in the conservatorship or capital support provided to the GSEs by the U.S. Government, could impact the manner in which the risk-retention rules apply to GSE securitizations, originators who sell loans to GSEs and our business. For other factors that could decrease the demand for mortgage insurance, see our risk factor titled "If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues."

GSE Reform

The FHFA is the conservator of the GSEs and has the authority to control and direct their operations. The increased role that the federal government has assumed in the residential mortgage market through the GSE conservatorship may increase the likelihood that the business practices of the GSEs change in ways that have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, these factors may increase the likelihood that the charters of the GSEs are changed by new federal legislation. The Dodd-Frank Act required the U.S. Department of the Treasury to report its recommendations regarding options for ending the conservatorship of the GSEs. This report was released in February 2011 and while it does not provide any definitive timeline for GSE reform, it does recommend using a combination of federal housing policy changes to wind down the GSEs, shrink the government's footprint in housing finance (including FHA insurance), and help bring private capital back to the mortgage market. Since then, Members of Congress introduced several bills intended to change the business practices of the GSEs and the FHA, however, no legislation has been enacted. As a result of the matters referred to above, it is uncertain what role the GSEs, FHA and private capital, including private mortgage insurance, will play in the domestic residential housing finance system in the future or the impact of any such changes on our business. In addition, the timing of the impact of any resulting changes on our business is uncertain. Most meaningful changes would require Congressional action to implement and it is difficult to estimate when Congressional action would be final and how long any associated phase-in period may last.

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For additional information about the business practices of the GSEs, see our risk factor titled "Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses."

Loan Modification and Other Similar Programs

Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, the federal government, including through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the GSEs, and several lenders implemented programs to modify loans to make them more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of foreclosures. During 2012, 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, we were notified of modifications that cured delinquencies that had they become paid claims would have resulted in approximately $1.2 billion, $1.0 billion and $210 million, respectively, of estimated claim payments. As noted below, we cannot predict with a high degree of confidence what the ultimate re-default rate on these modifications will be. Although the recent re-default rate has been lower, for internal reporting and planning purposes, we assume approximately 50% of these modifications will ultimately re-default, and those re-defaults may result in future claim payments. Because modifications cure the defaults with respect to the previously defaulted loans, our loss reserves do not account for potential re-defaults unless at the time the reserve is established, the re-default has already occurred. Based on information that is provided to us, most of the modifications resulted in reduced payments from interest rate and/or amortization period adjustments; from 2012 through the first quarter of 2014, approximately 10% resulted in principal forgiveness.

One loan modification program is the Home Affordable Modification Program ("HAMP") which began in 2009. Some of HAMP's eligibility criteria relate to the borrower's current income and non-mortgage debt payments. Because the GSEs and servicers do not share such information with us, we cannot determine with certainty the number of loans in our delinquent inventory that are eligible to participate in HAMP. We believe that it could take several months from the time a borrower has made all of the payments during HAMP's three month "trial modification" period for the loan to be reported to us as a cured delinquency. We rely on information provided to us by the GSEs and servicers. We do not receive all of the information from such sources that is required to determine with certainty the number of loans that are participating in, or have successfully completed, HAMP. We are aware of approximately 6,970 loans in our primary delinquent inventory at March 31, 2014 for which the HAMP trial period has begun and which trial periods have not been reported to us as completed or cancelled. Through March 31, 2014 approximately 52,700 delinquent primary loans have cured their delinquency after entering HAMP and are not in default. In 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, approximately 17% and 14%, respectively, of our primary cures were the result of a modification, with HAMP accounting for approximately 68% of those modifications in each of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. Although the HAMP program has been extended through December 2015, we believe that we have realized the majority of the benefits from HAMP because the number of loans insured by us that we are aware are entering HAMP trial modification periods has decreased significantly since 2010. The interest rates on certain loans modified under HAMP are subject to adjustment five years after the modification was entered into. Such adjustments are limited to an increase of one percentage point per year.

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In 2009, the GSEs began offering the Home Affordable Refinance Program ("HARP"). HARP, which has been extended through December 2015, allows borrowers who are not delinquent but who may not otherwise be able to refinance their loans under the current GSE underwriting standards, to refinance their loans. We allow the HARP refinances on loans that we insure, regardless of whether the loan meets our current underwriting standards, and we account for the refinance as a loan modification (even where there is a new lender) rather than new insurance written.

The effect on us of loan modifications depends on how many modified loans subsequently re-default, which in turn can be affected by changes in housing values. Re-defaults can result in losses for us that could be greater than we would have paid had the loan not been modified. At this point, we cannot predict with a high degree of confidence what the ultimate re-default rate will be. In addition, because we do not have information in our database for all of the parameters used to determine which loans are eligible for modification programs, our estimates of the number of loans qualifying for modification programs are inherently uncertain. If legislation is enacted to permit a portion of a borrower's mortgage loan balance to be reduced in bankruptcy and if the borrower re-defaults after such reduction, then the amount we would be responsible to cover would be calculated after adding back the reduction. Unless a lender has obtained our prior approval, if a borrower's mortgage loan balance is reduced outside the bankruptcy context, including in association with a loan modification, and if the borrower re-defaults after such reduction, then under the terms of our policy the amount we would be responsible to cover would be calculated net of the reduction.

As shown in the following table, as of March 31, 2014 approximately 27% of our primary risk in force has been modified.

Policy HARP (1) Year Modifications HAMP Modifications Other Modifications 2003 and Prior 8.7 % 10.2 % 10.5 % 2004 13.5 % 10.5 % 9.2 % 2005 18.1 % 12.4 % 10.0 % 2006 21.5 % 14.8 % 10.8 % 2007 30.4 % 15.8 % 6.8 % 2008 44.1 % 9.3 % 3.2 % 2009 17.1 % 0.6 % 0.4 % 2010 - Q1 2014 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Total 15.7 % 7.4 % 4.3 %



(1) Includes proprietary programs that are substantially the same as HARP

As of March 31, 2014 based on loan count, the loans associated with 98.5% of all HARP (or similar) modifications, 77.8% of HAMP modifications and 69.2% of other modifications were current.

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Eligibility under certain loan modification programs can adversely affect us by creating an incentive for borrowers who are able to make their mortgage payments to become delinquent in an attempt to obtain the benefits of a modification. New notices of delinquency increase our incurred losses.

Over the past several years, the average time it takes to receive a claim associated with a defaulted loan has increased. This is, in part, due to new loss mitigation protocols established by servicers and to changes in some state foreclosure laws that may include, for example, a requirement for additional review and/or mediation processes. Unless a loan is cured during a foreclosure delay, at the completion of the foreclosure, additional interest and expenses may be due to the lender from the borrower. In some circumstances, our paid claim amount may include some additional interest and expenses.

Factors Affecting Our Results

Our results of operations are affected by:

· Premiums written and earned

Premiums written and earned in a year are influenced by:

· New insurance written, which increases insurance in force, and is the aggregate

principal amount of the mortgages that are insured during a period. Many factors affect new insurance written, including the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations and competition to provide credit enhancement on those mortgages, including competition from the FHA, other mortgage insurers, GSE programs that may reduce or eliminate the demand for mortgage insurance and other alternatives to mortgage insurance. New insurance written does not include loans previously insured by us which are modified, such as loans modified under HARP.



· Cancellations, which reduce insurance in force. Cancellations due to

refinancings are affected by the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates throughout the in force book. Refinancings are also affected by current home values compared to values when the loans in the in force book became insured and the terms on which mortgage credit is available. Cancellations also include rescissions, which require us to return any premiums received related to the rescinded policy, and policies cancelled due to claim payment, which require us to return any premium received from the date of default. Finally, cancellations are affected by home price appreciation, which can give homeowners the right to cancel the mortgage insurance on their loans.



· Premium rates, which are affected by the risk characteristics of the loans

insured and the percentage of coverage on the loans.

· Premiums ceded under reinsurance agreements. See Note 4 - "Reinsurance" to our

consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our 2013 quota share agreement, under which premiums are ceded net of a profit commission. 47



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Premiums are generated by the insurance that is in force during all or a portion of the period. A change in the average insurance in force in the current period compared to an earlier period is a factor that will increase (when the average in force is higher) or reduce (when it is lower) premiums written and earned in the current period, although this effect may be enhanced (or mitigated) by differences in the average premium rate between the two periods as well as by premiums that are returned or expected to be returned in connection with claim payments and rescissions, and premiums ceded under reinsurance agreements. Also, new insurance written and cancellations during a period will generally have a greater effect on premiums written and earned in subsequent periods than in the period in which these events occur.

· Investment income

Our investment portfolio is comprised almost entirely of investment grade fixed income securities. The principal factors that influence investment income are the size of the portfolio and its yield. As measured by amortized cost (which excludes changes in fair market value, such as from changes in interest rates), the size of the investment portfolio is mainly a function of cash generated from (or used in) operations, such as net premiums received, investment earnings, net claim payments and expenses, less cash provided by (or used for) non-operating activities, such as debt or stock issuances or repurchases or dividend payments. Realized gains and losses are a function of the difference between the amount received on the sale of a security and the security's amortized cost, as well as any "other than temporary" impairments recognized in earnings. The amount received on the sale of fixed income securities is affected by the coupon rate of the security compared to the yield of comparable securities at the time of sale.

· Losses incurred



Losses incurred are the current expense that reflects estimated payments that will ultimately be made as a result of delinquencies on insured loans. As explained under "Critical Accounting Policies" in our 10-K MD&A, except in the case of a premium deficiency reserve, we recognize an estimate of this expense only for delinquent loans. Losses incurred are generally affected by:

· The state of the economy, including unemployment and housing values, each of

which affects the likelihood that loans will become delinquent and whether loans that are delinquent cure their delinquency. The level of new delinquencies has historically followed a seasonal pattern, with new delinquencies in the first part of the year lower than new delinquencies in the latter part of the year, though this pattern can be affected by the state of the economy and local housing markets.



· The product mix of the in force book, with loans having higher risk

characteristics generally resulting in higher delinquencies and claims.

· The size of loans insured, with higher average loan amounts tending to increase

losses incurred.

· The percentage of coverage on insured loans, with deeper average coverage

tending to increase incurred losses.

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· Changes in housing values, which affect our ability to mitigate our losses

through sales of properties with delinquent mortgages as well as borrower willingness to continue to make mortgage payments when the value of the home is below the mortgage balance.



· The rate at which we rescind policies. Our estimated loss reserves reflect

mitigation from rescissions of policies and denials of claims. We collectively refer to such rescissions and denials as "rescissions" and variations of this term.



· The distribution of claims over the life of a book. Historically, the first few

years after loans are originated are a period of relatively low claims, with claims increasing substantially for several years subsequent and then declining, although persistency (percentage of insurance remaining in force from one year prior), the condition of the economy, including unemployment and housing prices, and other factors can affect this pattern. For example, a weak economy or housing price declines can lead to claims from older books increasing, continuing at stable levels or experiencing a lower rate of decline. See further information under "Mortgage Insurance Earnings and Cash Flow Cycle" below.



· Losses ceded under reinsurance agreements. See Note 4 - "Reinsurance" to our

consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our reinsurance agreements.



· Changes in premium deficiency reserve

Each quarter, we re-estimate the premium deficiency reserve on the remaining Wall Street bulk insurance in force. The premium deficiency reserve primarily changes from quarter to quarter as a result of two factors. First, it changes as the actual premiums, losses and expenses that were previously estimated are recognized. Each period such items are reflected in our financial statements as earned premium, losses incurred and expenses. The difference between the amount and timing of actual earned premiums, losses incurred and expenses and our previous estimates used to establish the premium deficiency reserve has an effect (either positive or negative) on that period's results. Second, the premium deficiency reserve changes as our assumptions relating to the present value of expected future premiums, losses and expenses on the remaining Wall Street bulk insurance in force change. Changes to these assumptions also have an effect on that period's results.

· Underwriting and other expenses

The majority of our operating expenses are fixed, with some variability due to contract underwriting volume. Contract underwriting generates fee income included in "Other revenue." Underwriting and other expenses are net of any ceding commission associated with our reinsurance agreements. See Note 4 - "Reinsurance" to our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our reinsurance agreements.

· Interest expense



Interest expense reflects the interest associated with our outstanding debt obligations. The principal amount of our long-term debt obligations at March 31, 2014 is comprised of $62.0 million of 5.375% Senior Notes due in November 2015, $345 million of 5% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2017, $500 million of 2% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2020 and $389.5 million of 9% Convertible Junior Subordinated Debentures due in 2063 (interest on these debentures accrues and compounds even if we defer the payment of interest), as discussed in Note 3 - "Debt" to our consolidated financial statements and under "Liquidity and Capital Resources" below.

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Mortgage Insurance Earnings and Cash Flow Cycle

In our industry, a "book" is the group of loans insured in a particular calendar year. In general, the majority of any underwriting profit (premium revenue minus losses) that a book generates occurs in the early years of the book, with the largest portion of any underwriting profit realized in the first year following the year the book was written. Subsequent years of a book generally result in modest underwriting profit or underwriting losses. This pattern of results typically occurs because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the first few years of the book, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan prepayments), and increasing losses.

Summary of 2014 First Quarter Results

Our results of operations for the first quarter of 2014 were principally affected by the factors referred to below.

· Net premiums written and earned

Net premiums written and earned during the first quarter of 2014 decreased when compared to the same period in 2013. The decrease was due to our lower average insurance in force, as well as an increase in premiums ceded under reinsurance agreements.

· Investment income



Investment income in the first quarter of 2014 was higher when compared to the same period in 2013 due to an increase in our average investment yield, as well as an increase in our average invested portfolio.

· Realized gains (losses) and other-than-temporary impairments

Net realized gains (losses) for the first quarter of 2014 were ($0.2) million compared to $1.3 million for the first quarter of 2013. There were no OTTI losses in the first quarter of 2014 or 2013. At March 31, 2014, the net unrealized losses in our investment portfolio were $45.0 million, which included $67.8 million of gross unrealized losses, partially offset by $22.8 million of gross unrealized gains.

· Losses incurred



Losses incurred for the first quarter of 2014 decreased compared to the same period in 2013, primarily due to fewer new notices of default being received and a lower claim rate on new and previously received delinquencies. There were 23,346 new notices received in the first quarter of 2014 compared to 27,864 new notices received in the first quarter of 2013. There was an increase in the average estimated claim rate and average estimated severity in both the first quarter of 2014 and 2013.

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· Change in premium deficiency reserve

The premium deficiency reserve as of March 31, 2014 reflects the present value of expected future losses and expenses that exceeds the present value of expected future premiums and already established loss reserves. During the first quarter of 2014 the premium deficiency reserve on Wall Street bulk transactions declined by $5 million to $43 million. The decrease in the premium deficiency reserve represents the net result of actual premiums, losses and expenses as well as a change in net assumptions for the period. The change in net assumptions for the first quarter of 2014 is primarily related to higher estimated ultimate premiums.

· Underwriting and other expenses

Underwriting and other expenses for the first quarter of 2014 decreased when compared to the same period last year primarily due to an increase in the ceding commission on our reinsurance agreements.

· Interest expense

Interest expense for the first quarter of 2014 decreased when compared to the same period in 2013. The decrease is primarily related to a $10.5 million decrease in amortization of the discount on our junior debentures. The discount on the debentures was fully amortized as of March 31, 2013. This decrease to interest expense was somewhat offset by our issuance of Convertible Senior Notes in March 2013.

· Provision for income taxes

We had a net provision for income taxes of $0.7 million and $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2014 and 2013, respectively. The provision for (benefit from) income taxes was offset by a decrease (increase) in the valuation allowance of $22.4 million and ($22.7) million for the three months ended March 31, 2014 and 2013, respectively.


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