News Column

EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030

May 6, 2014

Michael Boutros

Talking Points



  • EURAUD fails at key inflection point / resistance
  • Weekly opening range breaks- Interim scalp bias bearish
  • Limited event risk out of Australia



    EURAUD Daily Chart

    EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030



    Technical Outlook



  • EURAUD Fails to breach above 1.4978-1.5030 key resistance zone
  • Broader head and shoulders play back in focus
  • Scalp bias weighted to the short side sub 1.5030- bearish invalidation
  • Breach target 1.5150, 1.5198
  • Interim support at 200DMA 1.4861
  • Subsequent support objective at 1.4690 - 1.4730
  • Daily RSI support trigger break sub 50- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Australian Retail Sales tonight and Employment Data on Thursday night



    EURAUD Scalp Chart

    EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030



    Notes: We've been following the progress of this trade since March 27th when the pair broke below the neckline of a head and shoulders formation dating back to the December highs. The pair achieved two of our primary support targets last month before rallying into key resistance into the close of April trade. The broader focus remains on that formation after the pair failed to break above the 1.5030 bearish invalidation level early this month.





    * It's extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.



    Key Threshold Grid



    Entry/Exit Targets

    Timeframe

    Level

    Significance

    Resistance Target 1

    30min

    1.4894

    61.8% Fib Extension

    Resistance Target 2

    30min

    1.4934

    23.6% Retracement

    Bearish Invalidation

    Daily / 30min

    1.4987 - 1.5029

    Mthly & Wkly ORH / April High / 38.2% Fib / 50DMA

    Break Target 1

    30min

    1.5090

    50% Retracement

    Break Target 2

    Daily / 30min

    1.5150

    38.2% Retracement March ORL

    Break Target 3

    Daily / 30min

    1.5198

    61.8% Retracement / ~TL Resistance / 100DMA









    Support Target 1

    Daily / 30min

    1.4861

    78.6% Fib Extension / 200DMA

    Bullish Invalidation

    Daily / 30min

    1.4820/36

    100% Ext / 50% Retrce / Last Wk's Low / TL Support

    Break Target 1

    30min

    1.4793

    61.8% Retracement

    Break Target 2

    30min

    1.4765

    Soft Support / Pivot

    Break Target 3

    Daily / 30min

    1.4690 - 1.4730

    61.8% Retrace / 100% Extension

    Break Target 4

    Daily

    1.4252

    Head & Shoulders Objective / 88.6% Retrace









    Average True Range

    Daily (20)

    104

    Profit Targets 24-26pips









    *ORH: Opening Range High

    *ORL: Opening Range Low



    Other Setups in Play:

  • EURJPY Scalps Target Critical Support at 141
  • Scalping the GBPNZD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.96
  • Key Risks to EUR, NZD, GBPAUD Scalp Setups
  • NZDUSD Weekly Opening Range Trade- Longs at Risk Sub 8700
  • EURUSD Scalp Setup Favors Buying Dips While Above 1.3830
















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    Source: DailyFx


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