News Column

AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support

May 27, 2014

David Song

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Rebound at Risk as 1Q GDP Contracts; RSI in Focus

- AUD/JPY Fails to Push Above Former Support (0.9430-50); Lower High in Place?

- XAU/USD Breaks Down; Close Below Support to Favor Further Decline



Despite the limited reaction to the slew of U.S. data prints, the near-term rebound in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) may continue to take shape ahead of the advance 1Q GDP report as the reserve currency climbs back above former support (10,508-509).



Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10514.91

10516.83

10479.65

0.16

118.89%



The dollar may continue to pare the sharp decline from the previous month as the bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum gathers pace, but a marked downward revision in the 1Q growth rate may halt the near-term advance in the greenback as it drags on interest rate expectations.



As a result, the Federal Reserve may show a greater willingness to carry its current policy into the second-half of the year, and the USDOLLAR may continue to carve lower highs & lower lows in the coming months as Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.



AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support





Read More:

Price & Time: Range Low in the Euro?

COT Positioning of Interest in AUD, JPY, and MXN



USDOLLAR Daily



AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support

  • Topside Targets in Play as Bullish RSI Momentum Remains in Focus
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)



    Release

    GMT

    Expected

    Actual

    Durable Goods Orders (APR)

    12:30

    -0.7%

    0.8%

    Durables ex Transportation (APR)

    12:30

    0.0%

    0.1%

    Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (APR)

    12:30

    -0.3%

    -1.2%

    Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (APR)

    12:30

    -0.2%

    -0.4%

    House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

    13:00

    0.5%

    0.7%

    House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)

    13:00

    1.30%

    1.30%

    S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

    13:00

    0.70%

    1.24%

    S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAR)

    13:00

    11.80%

    12.37%

    S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAR)

    13:00

    166.23

    166.80

    S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (1Q)

    13:00

    --

    150.76

    S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

    13:00

    9.90%

    10.35%

    Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)

    13:45

    54.5

    58.5

    Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY P)

    13:45

    --

    58.6

    Consumer Confidence (MAY)

    14:00

    83.0

    83.0

    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (MAY)

    14:00

    8

    7

    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAY)

    14:30

    9.2

    8.0

    Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy

    0:10






















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    Source: DailyFx


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