News Column

Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After NFP

May 2, 2014

Kristian Kerr

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY nearing big break?
  • EUR/USD testing big retracement
  • Important peak in place in AUD/NZD



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    Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:



    Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

    Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After NFP



  • USD/JPY has crawled higher since finding support at the 4th square root relationship of the year's low near 101.35 early last month
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower while below 103.10
  • A move under 101.35 is required to trigger a more important decline
  • The first half of next week is an important cycle turn window for the exchange rate
  • A daily close over 103.10 would shift the near-term trend bias higher



    USD/JPY Strategy: Square, but may look to get short early next week.



    Instrument

    Support 2

    Support 1

    Spot

    Resistance 1

    Resistance 2

    USD/JPY

    *101.35

    102.05

    102.45

    102.75

    *103.10



    Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

    Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After NFP





  • EUR/USD remains in a narrow range below the 78.6% retracement of the March to April decline near 1.3900
  • Our near-term trend bias higher in the Euro while over 1.3730
  • A push through 1.3900 is needed to trigger a new leg higher, but traction over 1.3970 is really required to confirm any sort of meaningful strength
  • A cycle turn window of some importance is seen next week
  • A move under the 2nd square root relationship of the year's high at 1.3730 will turn us negative on the Euro



    EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.3730 holds.



    Instrument

    Support 2

    Support 1

    Spot

    Resistance 1

    Resistance 2

    EUR/USD

    *1.3730

    1.3830

    1.3860

    *1.3900

    **1.3970**



    Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/NZD



    Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After NFP



    AUD/NZD has come under steady pressure since Tuesday's 'inside day' around the Pi cycle turn window we highlighted on Monday. The topping pattern was further bolstered by a head & shoulders on the daily. A Fibonacci confluence between 1.0665 and 1.0645 is the next big pivot level with a break under this zone needed to confirm that a more important top is in place. Only a daily close over 1.0830 would invalidate the negative technical picture and refocus higher.









    This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.












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    Source: DailyFx