News Column

AUD/USD Holds 0.9200 Support- Dovish RBA to Trigger Key Reversal

May 2, 2014

David Song

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped by Trendline Support Post NFP; May High in Place?

- EUR/USD to Retain Range Ahead of ECB on Failed Close Above 1.3870

- AUD/USD Holds 0.9200 Handle Ahead of RBA Interest Rate Decision



The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is giving back the bullish reaction to the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print, and the lack of momentum to break above trendline resistance continues to foster a bearish outlook for the greenback as price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the downward trend from earlier this month.



Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10454.44

10495.38

10443.77

0.08

183.22%



Despite the marked decline in the jobless late, subdued wage growth paired with the ongoing deterioration in the Labor Force Participation Rate continues to limit the scope of seeing a material shift in the Fed's policy outlook, and the dollar may continue to carve a series of lower highs and lower lows in May as the central bank continues to endorse its highly accommodative policy stance.



With that said, the USDOLLAR may have marked the high for May as the opening monthly range takes shape, and the greenback remains at risk of giving back the advance from back in October (10,354) unless we see a material shift in the Fed's forward-guidance for monetary policy.



AUD/USD Holds 0.9200 Support- Dovish RBA to Trigger Key Reversal





Read More:

Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After NFP

May Forex Seasonality Sees US Dollar Outperformance versus Aussie, Euro



USDOLLAR Daily



AUD/USD Holds 0.9200 Support- Dovish RBA to Trigger Key Reversal

  • May Mark Another Failed Attempt to Close Above 10,470; May High in Place?
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,406 (1.618 expansion)



    Release

    GMT

    Expected

    Actual

    Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (APR)

    12:30

    218K

    288K

    Unemployment Rate (APR)

    12:30

    6.6%

    6.3%

    Labor Force Participation Rate (APR)

    12:30

    --

    62.8%

    Change in Private Payrolls (APR)

    12:30

    215K

    273K

    Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (APR)

    12:30

    8K

    12K

    Change in Household Employment (APR)

    12:30

    250K

    -73K

    Underemployment Rate (APR)

    12:30

    --

    12.3%

    Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (APR)

    12:30

    --

    36K

    Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (APR)

    12:30

    0.2%

    0.0%

    Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (APR)

    12:30

    2.1%

    1.9%

    Average Weekly Hours (APR)

    12:30

    34.5

    34.5

    ISM New York (APR)

    13:45

    56.0

    50.6

    Factory Orders (MAR)

    14:00

    1.5%

    1.1%


















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    Source: DailyFx