- U. of Michigan Confidence to Improve for Second Consecutive Month.
- Print of 84.5 Would Mark the Highest Reading Since July.
Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence
A second straight rise in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a further decline in the EUR/USD as the ongoing improvement in the world's largest economy puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite expectations for a rate hike in 2015, a further pickup in household sentiment may undermine the Fed's scope to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) well into the following year, and a positive development may help to paint a more bullish outlook for the dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Consumer Credit (MAR)
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (APR)
ADP Employment Change (APR)
The ongoing improvement in the labor market along with the expansion in private sector lending may encourage a further pickup in consumer sentiment, and a better-than-expected print may generate a more bearish outlook for the EUR/USD as it raises the prospects for a stronger recovery.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR)
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (APR)
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAR)
However, sticky inflation paired with subdued wage growth may drag household confidence, and a dismal
How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Survey Advances to 84.5 or Higher
Bearish USD Trade: Household Confidence Falters
Potential Price Targets For The Release
Impact that the U. of Michigan Confidence has had on EUR/USD during the last release
(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
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