News Column

EUR/USD Risks Higher High on Dovish Fed- GBP/CAD Eyes Key Resistance

April 30, 2014

David Song

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Hit by Dismal 1Q GDP; All Eyes on FOMC

- EUR/USD Threatens Bearish Momentum; Higher High on Tap?

- GBP/CAD Eyes 1.8640 Resistance as Pair Carves Higher Low in April



The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is under pressure ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision as the advance GDP report showed a marked slowdown in the first-quarter, and the reserve currency may track lower going into the following as it appears to have carved a lower high in April.



Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10444.09

10476.43

10437.31

-0.29

130.52%



Indeed, the marked slowdown in the headline GDP reading may boost the Fed's argument to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time, but the stickiness in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, paired with the resilience in Personal Consumption may put increased pressure on central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the data undermines the risk for disinflation.



Nevertheless, there remains a limited risk of seeing a major shift in the Fed's policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), and the dollar may continue to give back the advance from back in October (10,354) should the committee merely reiterate the policy statement from the March 19 meeting.



EUR/USD Risks Higher High on Dovish Fed- GBP/CAD Eyes Key Resistance





Read More:

Price & Time: Too Much "Hope" in USD/JPY?

EURJPY Scalps Target Critical Support at 141



USDOLLAR Daily



EUR/USD Risks Higher High on Dovish Fed- GBP/CAD Eyes Key Resistance

  • Risks Fresh Yearly Lows as USDOLLAR Carves Lower High in April
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,406 (1.618 expansion)



    Release

    GMT

    Expected

    Actual

    MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 25)

    11:00

    --

    -5.9%

    ADP Employment Change (APR)

    12:15

    210K

    220K

    Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q A)

    12:30

    1.2%

    0.1%

    Personal Consumption (1Q A)

    12:30

    2.0%

    3.0%

    Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q A)

    12:30

    1.6%

    1.3%

    Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q A)

    12:30

    1.2%

    1.3%

    Employment Cost Index (1Q)

    12:30

    0.5%

    0.3%

    ISM Milwaukee (APR)

    13:00

    56.00

    47.26

    Chicago Purchasing Manager (APR)

    13:45

    57.0

    63.0

    Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision

    18:00

    0.25%



    Fed QE3 Pace

    18:00

    $45B



    Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases

    18:00

    $25B



    Fed Pace of MBS Purchases

    18:00

    $20B




















  • For more stories on investments and markets, please see HispanicBusiness' Finance Channel



    Source: DailyFx


    Story Tools






    HispanicBusiness.com Facebook Linkedin Twitter RSS Feed Email Alerts & Newsletters