News Column

KASB Securities Limited and Economics Research - Commodities Corner

April 29, 2014



Commodities mixed as Ukraine crisis escalates

- Gold higher as Ukrainian tensions escalate: Gold prices closed at a one and a half week highs as weaker equities and geo political tensions in Ukraine boosted the safe haven appeal. However, traders remain cautious that the price gains can be limited if geo- political tensions ease. Market participants are also waiting for US non-farm payrolls report and the US Fed policy meeting later in the week for stronger trading cues.

- Higher US oil inventories continue to build pressure on US oil prices: Crude prices settled at the lowest level since April 1st due to pressure from all time high crude oil inventories. However, downside may be limited if the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates.

Time Currency Impact Event Forecast Previous

28th April 2014 Monday

Tentative EUR Medium German Buba Monthly Report - -

7:00pm USD High Pending Home Sales m/m 1.0% -0.8%

29th April 2014 Tuesday

6:00pm USD Medium S and P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 12.9% 13.2%

7:00pm USD High CB Consumer Confidence 82.9 82.3

Gold Spot

Technical Strategy: Play the range

Gold closed at US$1,302, below the 30 - DMA which is at US$1,307. However, RSI and Stochastic are bullish and suggest higher prices in the near term. KASB Securities Limited recommends playing the range of US$1,296 (5 - DMA) - US$1,307. A break below US$1,296 can target US$1,288; while a break above US$1,307 can target US$1,315 (38.2% retracement of US$1,268 - US$1,392).

Silver Spot

Technical Strategy: Play the range

Silver closed at US$19.69, below the 20 - DMA which is at US$19.75. However, RSI and Stochastic are bullish and suggest higher prices in the near term. KASB Securities Limited recommends playing the range of US$19.57 (10 - DMA) - US$19.76. A break below US$19.57 can target US$18.92 (Last Week's low); while a break above US$19.75 can target US$19.93 (30 - DMA).

WTI Spot (Crude Oil)

Technical Strategy: Sell on Strength

Oil closed at US$100.61, below the 50 - DMA which is at US$101.65. RSI and Stochastic are bearish and suggest lower prices in the near term. KASB Securities Limited recommends selling on strength below US$101.65 targeting US$100.46 (Friday's low) with stops above US$102.33 (10 - DMA).


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Source: Pakistan Press International


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