News Column

Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update

April 29, 2014

John Kicklighter

Talking Points:



  • Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update
  • Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data
  • Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ's Intentions?



    Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update

    The dollar and financial markets were less worried about forging a major trend this past session and far more interested in preparing for the upcoming session's major event risk. There is plenty of top-tier calendar fodder, but the FOMC rate decision and US 1Q GDP statistics stand out over the rest. This combination of releases has the scope to not only reinvigorate US interest rate speculation - sidelined since the liquidity drain - they could actually change the course on broader risk trends given the proper outcomes. The impact of this wave depends on the market's susceptibility and the actual outcomes. At best, we know there is a reasonable probability of volatility and a lower level of certainty that it will encourage a dollar advance. However, the market's performance heading into the release is near certain: retracements and consolidation in preparation of the release.



    In establishing which of the two major US events will prove more market-moving, timing is of critical importance. The growth report is due at 12:30 GMT while the central bank will release its announce its verdict and statement at 18:00 GMT. Both of these items have enough pull that traders will hesitate to place large trades on the earlier release on anything but a substantial deviation from consensus for fear of a Fed outcome that could contradict the move. That is not to mean that the first quarter's GDP release is not important. However, its full impact may not be realized until after the policy meeting passes. If the central bank decree aligns with the economic data - whether on risk trend or rate forecasts - it could amplify the ultimate move and charge a true trend. If they conflict, the resulting move will be muted somewhat.



    Preparing for the headline deluge and speculative confusion, there is a clear consensus for the Fed meeting. The group has repeatedly insisted the Taper is status quo and a change to rates is not even under consideration. What dollar traders care about is any changes in tone in the statement that clarifies the time frame for the first rate hike or - less likely - raises the possibility of a pause on the Taper. Even a small shift in timing for the Fed's first tightening would leverage a serious response from the greenback. As for the GDP release, this may alter rate probabilities, but it could prove far more effective in generating a risk trend spark.



    Watch both the US GDP release and FOMC rate decision live in the DailyFX Live Trading Room. Sign up for email reminders for the live events.



    Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data

    While much of the market's focus will be turned on the US docket, Euro traders should keep close tabs on native event risk due today. The split docket can be split between economic health updates and inflation figures. In the former category, Spain's first reading of 1Q GDP, German unemployment and Italy labor data are known market-movers (in descending order of historical impact). While these indicators are good headline material, their impact will be quelled by expectations for the inflation measures. A broad range of price measures are due out of the Euro-area, but it is the Eurozone CPI reading for April that will catch the ECB's eye and therefore traders' interest. Much of the threat of a rate cut or alternative easing method hangs on the risk of persistently weak inflation. An expected rebound in the core and headline CPI figure could ease that pressure. Yet, if EURUSD rallies towards 1.4000 on the back of the move, policy officials will likely step up their threats.



    Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ's Intentions?

    The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy bearings (a target of an annual 60-70 trillion pace of growth in the money supply) this morning. Given the yen crosses meandering in recent months, some may wonder if there is confusion over the central bank's intentions for more stimulus. The BoJ has voiced a consistent and somewhat definitive view that more easing would not be needed as inflation is moving towards target and growth will not be permanently stymied by the tax hike. So are USDJPY and crew not toppling? Risk trends is still holding carry stable.



    British Pound Unable to Break Despite Heavy Hitting GDP Release

    With pairs like GBPUSD and GBPJPY looking at inevitable breakouts in price action alone, the UK 1Q GDP release was a gimme for sparking a bigger sterling move. And yet, the data failed to bear fruit. With the market focusing on anything that can even modestly change the outlook for interest rate forecasts in the UK, the data released in the dead zone. The 0.8 percent growth for the quarter was an acceleration but it fell short of consensus and four-year highs. Looking at swaps, rate speculation is due a breakout as well. Expect this tension to resolve very soon.



    New Zealand Yield Collapse Cools, Kiwi's Retreat Eases

    More than actual rate hikes, the New Zealand dollar is depending on forecasts for future increases. The recent retreat in those projections has kept the kiwi from moving higher and has even pulled NZDUSD back to threaten reversal. Looking to the market, 10-year New Zealand yields have slowed their decent, but they are still pressing 8-month lows this morning. If the yield breaks 4.4 percent, AUDNZD may break 1.0900.



    Chinese Yuan Slides to a New 18-Month Low as PBoC Says Let Some Assets Fail

    Both the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Chinese currency have dropped this morning. Against the greenback, the Renminbi (also referred generally as the Yuan) hit its lowest level since October 2012. This puts the market well on pace for a sizable third consecutive monthly decline. Some say this is a concerted PBoC effort to push the currency down, but capital outflow itself is more than enough.



    Emerging Markets Forge Another Rally Pre-Fed

    Adjustment in anticipation of the dense round of event risk and FOMC release isn't just a consideration for the dollar. The MSCI Emerging Market ETF rose 1.0 percent Tuesday and the FX grouping was mixed - though volatile. Though the withdrawal of cheap US funds is particularly important for this group, the Ukraine 1Q GDP release due today is worthy of market participants' attention given its impact on global markets.



    Gold Interest Rising in Leveraged Interest First



    ECONOMIC DATA



    GMT

    Ccy

    Release

    Survey

    Previous

    Comments



    JPY

    Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

    0.10%

    0.10%

    No changes expected. It is likely that the BoJ is waiting on more data to see how the tax hike impacted the economy.



    JPY

    Bank of Japan 2014 Monetary Base Target



    270T

    5:00

    JPY

    Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)

    -2.9%

    1.0%

    Housing Starts in Japan have been on a sharp decline year-to-date and vehicle production as come off after hitting highs not seen since 2012 back in January.

    5:00

    JPY

    Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)

    0.894M

    0.919M

    5:00

    JPY

    Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)



    12.3%



    5:00

    JPY

    Small Business Confidence (APR)



    53.5



    6:00

    CHF

    UBS Consumption Indicator (MAR)



    1.57



    6:00

    EUR

    German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

    1.4%

    2.0%

    Although important, this data is likely to have a muted impact ahead of the Euro-Zone's key April CPI data.

    6:00

    EUR

    German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

    -0.7%

    1.3%

    7:00

    CHF

    KOF Leading Indicator (APR)



    106.13



    7:55

    EUR

    German Unemployment Change (APR)

    -10K

    -12K



    7:55

    EUR

    German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

    6.7%

    6.7%



    8:00

    EUR

    Italian Unemployment Rate (MAR P)

    13.0%

    13.0%



    9:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR A)

    0.8%

    --

    A miss in EZ CPI figures for April is likely to be seen as incredibly bearish across EUR pairs. Market participants will be noting the mid-April EURUSD gap for resistance in any rallies.

    9:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone CPI Core (YoY) (APR A)

    1.0%

    0.7%

    11:00

    USD

    MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 25)



    -3.3%

    Expect to see tremendous volatility in USD and CAD pairs at this print despite the FOMC rate decision later in the day. USDCAD presents some unique opportunities if we do see any divergence between misses and beats between the two reports.

    12:15

    USD

    ADP Employment Change (APR)

    210K

    191K

    12:30

    USD

    Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q A)

    1.1%

    2.6%



    12:30

    USD

    Personal Consumption (1Q A)

    1.9%

    3.3%



    12:30

    USD

    Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q A)

    1.6%

    1.6%



    12:30

    CAD

    Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (FEB)

    0.2%

    0.5%



    12:30

    CAD

    Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (FEB)

    2.5%

    2.5%



    13:45

    USD

    Chicago Purchasing Manager (APR)

    56.5

    55.9



    14:00

    USD

    Retail Sales Revisions







    18:00

    USD

    FOMC Rate Decision

    0.25%

    0.25%

    Another $10B reduction in QE3 is expected this week and market participants will be looking for greater follow through in the Treasury market as well as the USDJPY cross.

    18:00

    USD

    Fed QE3 Pace

    $45B

    $55B

    18:00

    USD

    Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases

    $25B

    $30B



    18:00

    USD

    Fed Pace of MBS Purchases

    $20B

    $25B



    23:30

    AUD

    AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)



    47.9

    In 'contractionary' territory over the past 5-months



    GMT

    Currency

    Upcoming Events & Speeches

    6:30

    JPY

    BoJ Gov Kuroda Press Conference

    7:00

    CHF

    SNB Releases 1Q 2014 Currency Allocation

    19:30

    USD

    Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Central Banking

















    SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS



    To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

    To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table



    CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE



    EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT



    SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

    Currency

    USD/MXN

    USD/TRY

    USD/ZAR

    USD/HKD

    USD/SGD



    Currency

    USD/SEK

    USD/DKK

    USD/NOK

    Resist 2

    13.5800

    2.3800

    12.7000

    7.8165

    1.3650



    Resist 2

    7.5800

    5.8950

    6.5135

    Resist 1

    13.1500

    2.3000

    11.8750

    7.8075

    1.3250



    Resist 1

    6.8155

    5.8475

    6.2660

    Spot

    13.1013

    2.1217

    10.5561

    7.7529

    1.2564



    Spot

    6.5620

    5.4054

    6.0070

    Support 1

    12.9650

    2.0700

    10.2500

    7.7490

    1.2000



    Support 1

    6.0800

    5.3350

    5.7450

    Support 2

    12.6000

    1.7500

    9.3700

    7.7450

    1.1800



    Support 2

    5.8085

    5.2715

    5.5655



    INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT



    \CCY

    EUR/USD

    GBP/USD

    USD/JPY

    USD/CHF

    USD/CAD

    AUD/USD

    NZD/USD

    EUR/JPY

    Gold

    Res 3

    1.3895

    1.6917

    103.32

    0.8900

    1.1019

    0.9350

    0.8631

    142.77

    1315.86

    Res 2

    1.3873

    1.6893

    103.13

    0.8885

    1.1002

    0.9331

    0.8612

    142.48

    1310.67

    Res 1

    1.3852

    1.6870

    102.93

    0.8869

    1.0985

    0.9313

    0.8593

    142.18

    1305.48

    Spot

    1.3809

    1.6824

    102.54

    0.8839

    1.0952

    0.9275

    0.8555

    141.59

    1295.10

    Supp 1

    1.3766

    1.6778

    102.15

    0.8809

    1.0919

    0.9237

    0.8517

    141.00

    1284.72

    Supp 2

    1.3745

    1.6755

    101.95

    0.8793

    1.0902

    0.9219

    0.8498

    140.70

    1279.53

    Supp 3

    1.3723

    1.6731

    101.76

    0.8778

    1.0885

    0.9200

    0.8479

    140.41

    1274.34

    v

















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    Source: DailyFx