The dollar and financial markets were less worried about forging a major trend this past session and far more interested in preparing for the upcoming session's major event risk. There is plenty of top-tier calendar fodder, but the FOMC rate decision and US 1Q GDP statistics stand out over the rest. This combination of releases has the scope to not only reinvigorate US interest rate speculation - sidelined since the liquidity drain - they could actually change the course on broader risk trends given the proper outcomes. The impact of this wave depends on the market's susceptibility and the actual outcomes. At best, we know there is a reasonable probability of volatility and a lower level of certainty that it will encourage a dollar advance. However, the market's performance heading into the release is near certain: retracements and consolidation in preparation of the release.
In establishing which of the two major US events will prove more market-moving, timing is of critical importance. The growth report is due at
Preparing for the headline deluge and speculative confusion, there is a clear consensus for the Fed meeting. The group has repeatedly insisted the Taper is status quo and a change to rates is not even under consideration. What dollar traders care about is any changes in tone in the statement that clarifies the time frame for the first rate hike or - less likely - raises the possibility of a pause on the Taper. Even a small shift in timing for the Fed's first tightening would leverage a serious response from the greenback. As for the GDP release, this may alter rate probabilities, but it could prove far more effective in generating a risk trend spark.
Watch both the US GDP release and FOMC rate decision live in the
Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data
While much of the market's focus will be turned on the US docket, Euro traders should keep close tabs on native event risk due today. The split docket can be split between economic health updates and inflation figures. In the former category, Spain's first reading of 1Q GDP, German unemployment and
Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ's Intentions?
British Pound Unable to Break Despite Heavy Hitting GDP Release
With pairs like GBPUSD and GBPJPY looking at inevitable breakouts in price action alone, the
New Zealand Yield Collapse Cools, Kiwi's Retreat Eases
More than actual rate hikes, the
Chinese Yuan Slides to a New 18-Month Low as PBoC Says Let Some Assets Fail
Both the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Chinese currency have dropped this morning. Against the greenback, the Renminbi (also referred generally as the Yuan) hit its lowest level since
Emerging Markets Forge Another Rally Pre-Fed
Adjustment in anticipation of the dense round of event risk and FOMC release isn't just a consideration for the dollar. The MSCI Emerging Market ETF rose 1.0 percent Tuesday and the FX grouping was mixed - though volatile. Though the withdrawal of cheap US funds is particularly important for this group, the
Gold Interest Rising in Leveraged Interest First
No changes expected. It is likely that the BoJ is waiting on more data to see how the tax hike impacted the economy.
Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)
Housing Starts in
Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)
Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)
Small Business Confidence (APR)
UBS Consumption Indicator (MAR)
German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)
Although important, this data is likely to have a muted impact ahead of the Euro-Zone's key April CPI data.
German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
KOF Leading Indicator (APR)
German Unemployment Change (APR)
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)
Italian Unemployment Rate (MAR P)
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR A)
A miss in EZ CPI figures for April is likely to be seen as incredibly bearish across EUR pairs. Market participants will be noting the mid-April EURUSD gap for resistance in any rallies.
Euro-Zone CPI Core (YoY) (APR A)
MBA Mortgage Applications (
Expect to see tremendous volatility in USD and CAD pairs at this print despite the FOMC rate decision later in the day. USDCAD presents some unique opportunities if we do see any divergence between misses and beats between the two reports.
ADP Employment Change (APR)
Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q A)
Personal Consumption (1Q A)
Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q A)
Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (FEB)
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (FEB)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (APR)
Retail Sales Revisions
FOMC Rate Decision
Fed QE3 Pace
Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases
Fed Pace of MBS Purchases
AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)
In 'contractionary' territory over the past 5-months
Upcoming Events & Speeches
SNB Releases 1Q 2014 Currency Allocation
Former Fed Chairman
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS
The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified.