Understanding market correlations can allow traders to have an option on a commodity based off of the direction of their favorite currency pair. The idea is to take two seemingly different markets or assets and see how market price moves relative to each other. Today we will review using the USDCAD currency pair to determine the direction of USOIL (WTI) through the use of a correlation.
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When someone mentions Oil, currency traders should immediately think of the USDCAD as a correlating currency pair. These assets are negatively correlated meaning they generally can be seen moving in opposing directions. This occurs because the USDCAD quotes the price of Canadian Dollars in terms of USDollars. USOil represents Oil per barrel priced in terms of US Dollars. With the USD being on opposing sides of each equation this means that the two assets will move in opposing directions when the USD strengthens or weakens.
Secondly, the CAD has a high correlation to Oil due to
Trading the Correlation
The key to trading negatively correlated assets is finding a direction or having a fundamental opinion from one of the underlying assets before making a trading decision. If traders are seeing the USDCAD push to higher highs, this could easily be the catalyst for a bearish bias on Oil. Conversely if Oil is trending upwards traders would have reasonable expectations of the USDCAD traveling towards lower lows.
As you can see, this information is very useful to traders that already have an opinion on either Oil or the USDCAD currency pair. Often traders that are bullish on Oil choose to trade the USDCAD instead of the metal itself. The Canadian Dollar carries a 1.00% banking rate, meaning traders can earn additional interest while trading a bullish bias on Oil. If a trader is bullish on the USDCAD currency pair, traders can in turn sell Oil to avoid accumulating interest on their trading balance.
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