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Forex: USD/JPY Technical Analysis ? Support Held Below 101.00

February 6, 2014

Ilya Spivak

Talking Points: USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 100.98 (50% Fib ret.), 99.93 (61.8% Fib ret.) Resistance: 101.76-102.02 (channel bottom, 38.2% Fib ret.), 103.32 (23.6% Fib ret.) Prices remain wedged between support at 100.98, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and the underside of a falling channel set from mid-December (now at 101.76). Resistance is reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 102.02. A daily close above this barrier initially exposes the 23.6% Fib at 103.32. Alternatively, reversing below support targets the 61.8% level at 99.93. Tight congestion between near-term up- and downside technical barriers argues against taking a trade at current levels on risk/reward grounds. Furthermore, the pair's strong sensitivity to risk sentiment trends warns against taking directional bets before the upcoming US Employment data . We will opt to play it safe and not to take a directional bet for now.

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Source: DailyFx

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