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FOREX NEWS: Spot USD/INR - Weekly Outlook for Feb5 2014

February 5, 2014

Research Team

Highlights: The greenback ended last week's session absolutely flat versus the Indian rupee, closing at INR62.6800 to a dollar. The pair was seen trading in a tight 132 pips range during the course of the week. Volumes on the front- month February futures rose to 5.67 million contracts from 4.45 million contracts the previous week, while open interest stood at 525,277 contracts, an increase from 427,392 contracts, the earlier week. In economic data, manufacturing PMI for the month of January rose to 51.4 from 50.7 in December, last year. The PMI has risen to the highest level since March 2013 , on the back of speedy growth in new orders and a rise in exports. A reading above 50 indicates expansion and the inverse signals contraction The Week Ahead Technical view: Spot USD/INR The US dollar ended the session on Tuesday flat, with a negative bias, versus the Indian Rupee, concluding a range- bound session. Near term, the gains are likely to extend to INR63.7500- 64.0000; top end of the channel plotted from the highs of November 2013 , where the pair is likely to face some selling pressure. However, close above the resistances and the rally should continue to INR 64.7500- 65.0000; top end of the medium term bullish channel, where the near term highs are likely to be capped. Supports for the week are placed at INR 61.4000- 61.6000; trend line drawn from the lows of September 2013 and connecting the lows of January 2014 . The medium to long term view remains bullish in favor of the greenback with the pair likely to breach the September 2013 highs. Trading range for the week: INR 61.5000- 64.0000 Strategy: Look to go long on the U.S. dollar on declines from INR 61.4000-61.6000. Long positions can also be initiated around supports at INR 60.8500- 61.0000.

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Source: DailyFx

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