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Forex: Euro Unlikely to Find Support in Upbeat Manufacturing PMI Data

February 2, 2014

Ilya Spivak

Talking Points: Euro Unlikely to Find Support in Upbeat Manufacturing PMI Data US Dollar Vulnerable if January's ISM Print Proves Disappointing New Zealand Dollar Outperformed in Otherwise Quiet Asian Trade Final revisions of January's Eurozone Manufacturing PMI readings headline the economic calendar in European hours. Flash estimates put the most closely-watched German and regional-wide measures at 32-month highs. Confirmation of these seemingly robust results seems unlikely to boost the Euro as traders remain focused on anemic inflation trends and their implications for an expansion of ECB stimulus efforts, perhaps as soon as this week . We continue to hold short EURUSD . Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US ISM Manufacturing data. The report is expected to show that factory-sector activity growth slowed for the second consecutive month in January. US news-flow has increasingly softened relative to consensus forecasts over the past two weeks, suggesting analysts are overestimating the health of the world's largest economy and opening the door for a downside surprise. That may weigh on the US Dollar as traders size up the outcome's implications for a possible slowing of the Fed's QE "tapering" process. The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. A singular catalyst was not readily apparent, suggesting the Kiwi 's advance probably reflected corrective price action after last week's dismal showing. The currency slid 1.56 percent against its US namesake, yielding the worst performance among the majors. Asia Session GMT CCY EVENT ACT EXP PREV 22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manuf. Index (JAN) 46.7 - 47.6 23:00 AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JAN) 1.2% - 1.4% 23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JAN) 0.1% - 0.7% 23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JAN) 2.5% - 2.7% 0:01 GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JAN) 0.3% - 0.5% 0:01 GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JAN) 4.8% - 4.4% 0:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC) -2.9% -0.5% -0.3% 0:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC) 21.8% 23.4% 23.6% 0:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN) -0.3% - -0.8% 1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (JAN) 53.4 - 54.6 5:00 JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN) 27.5% - 18.7% 5:30 AUD Commodity Index (YoY) (JAN) -9.9% - -3.6% 5:30 AUD Commodity Index AUD (JAN) 91.5 - 92.5 European Session GMT CCY EVENT EXP/ACT PREV IMPACT 8:30 CHF PMI Manufacturing (JAN) 55.0 53.9 Low 8:45 EUR Italian PMI Manufacturing (JAN) 53.2 53.3 Low 8:50 EUR French PMI Manufacturing (JAN F) 48.8 48.8 Medium 8:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing (JAN F) 56.3 56.3 Medium 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JAN F) 53.9 53.9 Medium 9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing (JAN) 57.3 57.3 High 10:00 EUR Euro Area 3Q Government Deficit - - Low Critical Levels CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3 EUR/USD 1.3325 1.3419 1.3452 1.3513 1.3546 1.3607 1.3701 GBP/USD 1.6313 1.6384 1.6411 1.6455 1.6482 1.6526 1.6597

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Source: DailyFx

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