Talking Points EURNZD topside bias at risk below near-term resistance Weekly/Monthly opening range in focus Major event risk on tap from New Zealand & Eurozone this week EURNZD Daily Chart Technical Outlook EURNZD Eyes key resistance threshold 1.6695-1.6720 (January high close) Weekly opening range in focus just below this region- Near-term scalp bias pending Multi-month consolidation pattern resistance at 1.6880-1.6903 Broader outlook constructive above 1.6415/25 Daily RSI stalling at 60- Nice topside trigger with breach/close above 1.6720 Event Risk on Tap: New Zealand Employment Data tomorrownight, Eurozone Retail Sales data on Wednesday & ECB rate Decision Thursday EURNZD Scalp Chart Notes: The 1.6695-1.6720 threshold is of extreme technical significance and is represented by the 61.8% extension off the January low, the 61.8% retracement off the December high and the January 2nd close. Our broader bullish bias noted back on January 10th has achieved all three resistance targets and is now at risk below this mark. The pair is just starting to put in the weekly and monthly opening ranges and as such, we will respect a breach/close above this mark with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside scalp targets into the 1.6880-1.6903 objective where stronger resistance stands. Our immediate focus is against the .6695-1.6720 range with a break below the weekly opening range low / trendline support dating 1/22 suggesting a larger correction may be in the works. The broader outlook remains weighted to the topside while above 1.6415/25 where the 100 & 200DMAs and last week's low rest. Note that the daily momentum signature continues to struggle below the 60-threshold with an intra-day RSI range between 40-60 since the start of the week suggesting the market remains rather complacent here.. at least for now. We will look for a break of this range alongside the weekly open in price to put this setup into play. * It's extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Key Threshold Grid Entry/Exit Targets Timeframe Level Significance Bearish Invalidation Daily / 30min 1.6695- 1.6720 61.8% Ext / 61.8% Retrace / Oct High / Wkly ORH Break Target 1 30min 1.6790 Soft Resistance / Pivot Break Target 2 30min 1.6727 78.6% Retracement Break Target 3 Daily / 30min 1.6880-1.6903 61.8% & 100% Exts / TL Resistance Break Target 4 Daily / 30min 1.6982/95 78.6% Retracement / December High Break Target 5 Daily 1.7105 8/28/13 Close (2013 High) Break Target 6 Daily 1.7198 1.618% Fib Extension Break Target 7 Daily 1.7273/93 100% Ext / 2013 Stretch High Bullish Invalidation 30min 1.6602 50% Retrace / Weekly ORL Break Target 1 30min 1.6550 Soft Support / Pivot Break Target 2 30min 1.6510 38.2% Retracement Break Target 3 Daily / 30min 1.6415/25 100 & 200DMAs / Last Wk's Low / 61.8% Retrace Break Target 4 30min 1.6325 78.6% Retracement Average True Range Daily (20) 157 Profit Targets 36-40pips *ORH: Opening Range High *ORL: Opening Range Low Other Setups in Play: USDCHF Defends January Range Low- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 90 FOMC Setups - EUR, CAD, Gold Eye Key Dollar Inflection Points CADJPY Scalps Favor Selling Rallies Post Key Support Break EURUSD Bias At Risk Above 1.3522- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
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