Fitch Ratings has downgraded the rating on The Rating Outlook is also revised to Negative from Stable.
The power revenue bonds are secured by a senior lien on net revenues of the electric system.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
COMMONWEALTH DETERIORATION DRIVES DOWNGRADE: The rating downgrade and Outlook revision reflect concerns prompted by Fitch's recent downgrade of the debt ratings of the Commonwealth of
WEAK FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: PREPA's financial performance has significantly weakened in recent years and drove Fitch's two-notch downgrade of the utility to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' in
STRAINED LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL MARKETS ACCESS: Fitch believes that the most recent challenges faced by the commonwealth and PREPA could strain the authority's liquidity, limit access to the broader capital markets, raise borrowing costs and deter improvement in outstanding government and municipal account receivables, further pressuring PREPA's weak financial position. Favorably, PREPA's anticipated capital needs are funded through fiscal 2015.
RECEIVABLES REMAIN HIGH: Total receivables remain high at 28.8 percent of fiscal 2013 revenues, an ongoing negative credit factor. Despite efforts by the commonwealth along with the
BROAD BUT WEAK SERVICE AREA: PREPA's retail customer base is diversified and not as dependent on tourism as other islands. However, the commonwealth remains economically weak, with a declining population base, limited wealth levels and high debt burden. Through the first six months of fiscal 2014, energy sales continued to fall by 2 percent.
POWER SUPPLY DIVERSIFICATION: Management is focused on reducing dependency on costly oil-fired generation, primarily via the conversion of existing plants to dual fuel (oil and natural gas) generation, which Fitch views favorably. Oil generation dependency has declined from close to 100 percent pre-2000 to roughly 61 percent currently. If remaining plant conversions are completed, annual fuel costs could decline 40 percent (
INABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY: Negative rating action would result from additional strain on PREPA's weak liquidity as evidenced by insufficient cash reserves, a failure to extend or replace existing bank lines, further growth in accounts receivable or the inability to finance its proposed capital plan.
FURTHER COMMONWEALTH CREDIT DECLINE: Continued erosion in the commonwealth's credit quality could heighten concerns regarding PREPA's ongoing market access and long-term service territory fundamentals that are beyond the current rating level.
IMPROVED FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND MARKET ACCESS: The current rating takes into account PREPA's weak balance sheet and marginal debt service coverage projected through fiscal 2015. Successful implementation of PREPA's plan to diversify fuel exposure, improvement in operating margins and stable access to capital would be required to stabilize the Outlook.
PREPA is one of the largest public power systems in the U.S. and the sole provider of power to the Commonwealth of
PREPA's concentration of power resources in oil generation exposes the authority to volatile fuel costs and environmental mandates. Fitch views the utility's efforts to diversify its energy mix positively, as the continued reduction in oil generation dependency should alleviate some of the pressure on future financial margins as well as meet required
EFFECT OF COMMONWEALTH RATING DOWNGRADE
PREPA operates as a self-funded utility enterprise. As a result, Fitch does not strictly link the two ratings. However, PRPEA's financial strength is affected by the economic and financial viability of the commonwealth and its residents, as evidenced by PREPA's growing account receivables and declining energy sales.
The authority has meaningful market access risk exposure stemming from short-term lines of credit (LOCs) that come due over the course of the year and will need to be refinanced with long-term debt or renegotiated for an extended term. The LOCs total
At a minimum, the recent deterioration in the credit quality of both the commonwealth and PREPA are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs when the authority seeks to renew its LOCs or refinance maturities. Although failure to address the expiring LOCs would not lead to an event of default on the power revenue bonds, according to PREPA, it would further evidence the authority's strained financial profile. The higher capital cost structure and market access risk, however unlikely, are better reflected at the 'BB+' rating level.
WEAKENED FINANCIAL PROFILE
Fitch downgraded PREPA on
Fitch-calculated debt service coverage for the past five years (fiscal 2009-2013), which includes CILTs as an operating expense, was close to 1.0x and declined to less than 1.0x in fiscal 2011 and 2013. Additional borrowings were periodically necessary to meet total obligations. A reluctance to raise base rates also persists, as base rates remain unchanged since 1989.
REASONABLE OPERATING STRATEGY
PREPA has previously developed a reasonable plan to restore prospective financial margins in concert with the GDB and with the support of legislative initiatives. PREPA is implementing measures to improve revenue collections and reduce operating costs (non- fuel) that were designed to improve operating margins by
With PREPA's completed conversion of the Costa Sur generating facility to dual-fuel (25 percent of energy mix) fuel costs are also expected to decline in fiscal 2014, providing some rate relief due to the lower fuel cost component.
NO MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 2016
Based on PREPA's last financial forecast and capital strategy reviewed by Fitch, debt service coverage, including CILTs as an operating expenses, was forecast at about 1.0x through fiscal 2016 reflecting cost cutting initiatives, a somewhat aggressive electric sales growth forecast (CAGR 0.9 percent per year 2014-2017), and annual debt service payments that are scheduled to increase over the same period.
Additionally, PREPA's equity-to-total capitalization ratio is not likely to notably improve going forward (-9.8 percent as of fiscal year-end 2013) given the authority's
Additional information is available at fitchratings.com
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Fitch Ratings has downgraded the rating on
The Rating Outlook is also revised to Negative from Stable.