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Our base case remains that the reversals seen in the EUR/USD and USD/CHF late last year were cyclically significant and should presage a general USD move higher over the course of 2014. As such, the weakness in USD/CHF over the past few weeks presents a potential buying opportunity as the exchange rate tests the key 61.8% retracement of the December to January range near .8935. The short-term cyclical outlook suggests the rate could have another day or two of more downside and for this reason we like waiting until next week before positioning. Aggressive weakness after next Monday below.8875 would severely damage the positive cyclical outlook.
USD/CHF Daily Chart:
Key Event Risk Next Week:
LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance: .8975 (Fibonacci), .9035 (weekly high)
Support: .8935 (Fibonacci), .8875 (Fibonacci)
Strategy: Buy USD/CHF Next Week
Entry: Buy USD/CHF at .8940