News Column

Forex: Dollar Collapse Now Third Worst in Over a Decade

February 13, 2014

John Kicklighter



Talking Points:



  • Dollar Collapse Now Third Worst in Over a Decade
  • Euro Has Clear Levels but Can GDP Generate Breakout Velocity?
  • British Pound Extends Run Though Market Second Guessing BoE Hike



    Dollar Collapse Now Third Worst in Over a Decade

    The bleeding doesn't stop. With Thursday's close, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has dropped for 9 consecutive trading days. We have only seen this level of consistent bearish pressure for the benchmark twice before in the index's history. Yet, it should be noted that the pressure behind the move is still lacking for conviction. The 126-pip decline through this move contrasts to the 173-pip drop in July of 2007 or the 302-pip plunge through May of 2006. The selling pressure is being felt across all of the major counterparts, but there is still a measure of obvious technical restraint for most (the exception being GBPUSD). The failed transition towards risk aversion is certainly an aspect of this move, but that driver was never truly realized. The greenback seems to be losing the persistent appeal of Taper speculation.



    Euro Has Clear Levels but Can GDP Generate Breakout Velocity?

    It seems appropriate that EURUSD has returned to 1.3700 - 2014's general resistance for the benchmark pair - ahead of important Euro-area event risk. On deck we have the first measures of the 4Q regional GDP figures. Market participants don't have to make many connections between this data and its influence on what truly sustains the region's financial appeal. A sustained economic recovery can offer the necessary affirmation to policy officials to stay their hand on monetary policy (thereby encouraging market rates higher) while simultaneously stabilizing investors' confidence in the tempestuous market backdrop. In the meantime, the ECB's cut its 2014 CPI forecast from 1.5 percent to 1.1 percent; and Italy's Prime Minister Enrico Letta resigned under renewed political pressures. The crisis fodder is there as long as fear is ignited.



    British Pound Extends Run Though Market Second Guessing BoE Hike



    New Zealand Dollar: Foreign Holdings of NZ Bonds a Carry Appetite Measure

    A hedge fund partner remarked Thursday that New Zealand looked like Ireland circa 2007. The market seems to have similar assumptions of the country's outlook if the currency is any indication. Despite a robust rate forecast (pricing in 121 bps of hikes over 12 months and a certainty of a hike in March) and supportive risk backdrop via global equities, we have seen the kiwi struggle. We are seeing this lack of confidence start to show through in positioning. This morning, the RBNZ reported foreign holdings of the country's government bonds fell to 63.7 percent in January - the lowest since November 2012. Far more dramatic (and timely) though is the retail positioning. Another incredible extreme, the short speculative interest has surged 190 percent over the week - setting the number of shorts-to-longs at 7.4 to 1.



    Australian Dollar Jobs Tumble Cools, Bond Auction Meets Strong Demand

    The Aussie dollar tumble that followed the surprise drop in January net payrolls and the decade-high in the unemployment rate (6.0 percent) cooled quickly. Given the weight of the data, the restraint is telling of the currency's bearings. Looking to assess the market's outlook for the possibility of further rate hikes to weaken the carry currency, swaps are still pricing in a positive 12-month outlook (11 bps of hikes) while the 2-year government bond yield is down 10 bps (to 2.78 percent) from its 10-month high over the past two sessions.



    Yen Crosses Attempt Another Retreat as Nikkei Fades US Climb

    The yen crosses were diving alongside the Nikkei 225 Friday morning. The move looked a lot like the move through the Asian session Thursday - which ultimately ended without the necessary break for follow through. Low volatility and an appetite for 'risky' assets is crucial to keep these crosses heading higher. Otherwise, investors will begin to question the tepid yield these pairs offer and the distinct lack of policy officials' insistence that more stimulus is in the works. The IMF recently commented further QE from the BoJ was unnecessary, and we haven't seen anything from the group to contradict this attack on speculation. Looking ahead, we have Japan's 4Q GDP figures and a rate decision on the docket for next week.



    Emerging Markets: Central Banks Holds Rates, Argentina Makes a Move to Transparency

    While there were a few standouts this past session amongst the Emerging Market group for declines (the Russian Ruble and Indian Rupee among them), the bias was broadly bullish. Conditions have improved as the fear of capital flight has steadied alongside the traditional volatility measures. The situation seems encouraging enough that policy officials are taking moves towards transparency or avoided 'accommodation'. The central banks for South Korea and Indonesia maintained their benchmark rates unchanged (at 2.50 and 7.50 percent respectively) presumably seeing little need to prevent capital outflow. Across the Ocean, Argentina updated its official CPI reading to a more realistic measure. The new calculation offered a January reading of 3.7 percent price growth on the month - December's was 1.0 percent...



    Gold Finally Overtakes $1,300, Investor Unwinding Slows

    It has taken three months, but gold has finally made its way back above the $1,300 mark. Such a triumph for the bulls would normally be considered an occasion for a meaningful rally on the technical breakout. There was very little of that exuberance in this particular move though. The 0.9 percent advance on the day was enough to secure the technical progress but little more - notably, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) stands at 1304. On the other hand, there are encouraging developments in certain accumulation measures. From futures, open interest (a gauge of participation) seems to have stemmed its plunge and held above the four-and-a-half year low set in October. From another derivative, ETF holdings of the precious metal have leveled out nearing the most stable levels since December 2012.



    ECONOMIC DATA



    GMT

    Currency

    Release

    Survey

    Previous

    Comments

    1:30

    CNY

    Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

    -1.6%

    -1.4%

    Higher levels of inflation here could weigh negatively on the Aussi.

    1:30

    CNY

    Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

    2.4%

    2.5%

    6:30

    EUR

    French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)

    0.6%

    0.2%

    Following the resignation of PM Letta of Italy, any data that does not meet estimates could easily be viewed as negative for the Euro. Market participants have plenty of fundamental reasons to sell the Euro, but it will take negative incoming data worse than the other majors to help upend support. Volatility may remain low ahead of the full Eurozone GDP print at 10:00GMT.

    6:30

    EUR

    French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

    0.2%

    -0.1%

    7:00

    EUR

    German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

    0.3%

    0.3%



    7:00

    EUR

    German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

    1.3%

    0.6%



    7:00

    EUR

    German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

    1.3%

    1.1%



    7:45

    EUR

    French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q P)

    -0.1%

    -0.1%



    7:45

    EUR

    French Wages (QoQ) (4Q P)

    0.2%

    0.2%



    9:00

    EUR

    Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

    0.1%

    0.0%



    9:00

    EUR

    Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

    -0.8%

    -1.8%



    9:30

    EUR

    Italian General Government Debt (DEC)



    2104.1B



    9:30

    GBP

    Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

    2.0%

    -4.0%

    As the U.K. housing market begins to show signs of overheating in urban areas, construction data such as this is likely to become more important moving forward.

    9:30

    GBP

    Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

    6.3%

    2.2%

    10:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (4Q A)

    0.3%

    0.1%

    If the GDP print meets estimates of 0.4% YoY, it will be the single best figure since 2011.

    10:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q A)

    0.4%

    -0.4%

    10:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (DEC)

    14.0B

    16.0B



    10:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)

    14.5B

    17.1B



    13:30

    CAD

    Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (DEC)

    0.5%

    1.0%

    A disappointment here combined with better than expected U.S. data at 13:30GMT could help USD/CAD bounce off support.

    13:30

    USD

    Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

    0.1%

    0.0%

    Import Price Index YoY has been negative since the summer. A missed print here will be viewed negatively on the greenback following yesterday's terrible retail sales numbers.

    13:30

    USD

    Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

    -0.7%

    -1.3%

    14:15

    USD

    Industrial Production (JAN)

    0.3%

    0.3%



    14:15

    USD

    Capacity Utilization (JAN)

    79.4%

    79.2%



    14:15

    USD

    Manufacturing Production (SIC) (JAN)

    0.2%

    0.4%



    14:55

    USD

    U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB P)

    80.5

    81.2





    GMT

    Currency

    Upcoming Events & Speeches

    9:30

    EUR

    Portugal GDP (4Q A)

    10:00

    EUR

    Cyprus GDP (4Q A)

    10:00

    EUR

    Greece GDP (4Q A)

    11:00

    EUR

    ECB Publishes 3-Year LTRO Repayment

    13:30

    USD

    Revisions of Producer Price Index

    17:30

    EUR

    ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy



    SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS



    To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

    To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table



    CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE



    EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT



    SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

    Currency

    USD/MXN

    USD/TRY

    USD/ZAR

    USD/HKD

    USD/SGD



    Currency

    USD/SEK

    USD/DKK

    USD/NOK

    Resist 2

    14.0200

    2.3800

    12.7000

    7.8165

    1.3650



    Resist 2

    7.5800

    5.8950

    6.5135

    Resist 1

    13.5800

    2.3000

    11.8750

    7.8075

    1.3250



    Resist 1

    6.8155

    5.8475

    6.2660

    Spot

    13.3456

    2.1981

    11.0466

    7.7573

    1.2675



    Spot

    6.4388

    5.4740

    6.1064

    Support 1

    13.0000

    2.1000

    10.2500

    7.7490

    1.2000



    Support 1

    6.0800

    5.3350

    5.7450

    Support 2

    12.6000

    1.7500

    9.3700

    7.7450

    1.1800



    Support 2

    5.8085

    5.2715

    5.5655



    INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT



    \CCY

    EUR/USD

    GBP/USD

    USD/JPY

    USD/CHF

    USD/CAD

    AUD/USD

    NZD/USD

    EUR/JPY

    Gold

    Res 3

    1.3727

    1.6738

    103.05

    0.9036

    1.1087

    0.9028

    0.8395

    140.62

    1311.61

    Res 2

    1.3703

    1.6708

    102.80

    0.9017

    1.1067

    0.9007

    0.8373

    140.24

    1306.13

    Res 1

    1.3679

    1.6678

    102.55

    0.8998

    1.1047

    0.8985

    0.8351

    139.87

    1300.66

    Spot

    1.3631

    1.6619

    102.06

    0.8960

    1.1007

    0.8941

    0.8307

    139.12

    1289.70

    Supp 1

    1.3583

    1.6560

    101.57

    0.8922

    1.0967

    0.8897

    0.8263

    138.37

    1278.74

    Supp 2

    1.3559

    1.6530

    101.32

    0.8903

    1.0947

    0.8875

    0.8241

    138.00

    1273.27

    Supp 3

    1.3535

    1.6500

    101.07

    0.8884

    1.0927

    0.8854

    0.8219

    137.62

    1267.79

    v




















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    Source: DailyFx


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