The corn market is balancing several factors as we move towards the US planting season. On one hand, we have the bearish factors of a record global corn crop and the largest year ending stocks since 2001. On the other hand, we are witnessing a rapid and sustained growth in exports along with weather complications taking their toll on South American supplies. Given the technical and seasonal factors at play in this market, I think we have finally put in the post 2013 harvest lows and could continue higher into the planting season.
The corn market, particularly here in the US has been beaten down in the fields and in the papers since the 2012 highs above
The record harvest's fundamental impact on prices is obvious. The less obvious impact on prices revolves around
The GMO issue is one that will continue to be dealt with. Currently, there are approximately 25 countries that either ban or strictly label GMO produce. Farmers here in the US are already beginning to conform to stricter global market standards as they realize that their products may be worth more on the global market rather than confining themselves to our own domestic markets. This is particularly true in the cattle market, which we discussed in, "Cheap Feed, Expensive Beef - What Gives?" The monopoly held by US farmers in the global grain markets is rapidly declining as
Shifting gears to the trade data helps set the stage for the current basing activity and higher prices I expect to follow. The
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