News Column

SIFMA Issues Quarterly Government Securities Issuance and Rates Forecast for 1Q 2014

January 31, 2014

NEW YORK , Jan. 31 -- The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association issued the following news release: SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the first quarter of 2014. The full report is available here. Highlights of the forecast include: * SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $205.5 billion in the first quarter, 22.1 percent lower than the net $263.8 billion issued in the fourth quarter of 2013 (actuals include cash management balances). * Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $37.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the first quarter, up 2.8 percent from the $36.0 billion issued in the fourth quarter. * The median forecast for net issuance of Treasury coupon securities is $181.0 billion for the first quarter, 10.3 percent lower than the fourth quarter's net issuance of $201.8 billion . * Survey participants expect to see net bill issuance of $24.5 billion in the first quarter, much lower than the net redemption of $62.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The expectations for the net bill issuance in the first quarter varied widely among the survey respondents, showing no consensus in the direction or the scale in forecast for net bill issuance. * Survey participants forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $135.0 billion in the first quarter. The projections reflect a 55.1 percent increase from the fourth quarter, with much of the forecasted increase coming from Fannie Mae and the Federal Home Loan Banks. TNS 24HariCha-140201-30FurigayJane-4622604 30FurigayJane


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Source: Targeted News Service


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