News Column

Forex: Dollar Advances Despite Tempered Growth as Rate Outlook Builds

January 30, 2014

John Kicklighter

Talking Points: Dollar Advances Despite Tempered Growth as Rate Outlook Builds Euro Drops on Lending Data, Inflation Data to Draws ECB Attention Yen Crosses Try to Recover as Risk Lingers, Data Weighs QE Need Dollar Advances Despite Tempered Growth as Rate Outlook Builds Despite a rebound in equities, the US Dollar offered up a strong performance through this past session. In fact, the 10-day rolling correlation between the greenback and benchmark S&P 500 (a favored risk appetite measure) is 0.71 - a strong, positive relationship. There is growing skepticism over the dollar's traditional place on the risk-reward scale. Yet, regardless of whether the currency is warping its natural response to 'risk on'; it is a significantly bullish evolution for a currency that would otherwise drop under the weight of its safe haven status. Under this current dynamic, the dollar stands to appreciate gradually in fair market weather and surge forward should panic drive capital into the Treasuries and other deeply liquid US markets. But where has this appetite for the dollar come from? Though we have not seen a full-scale deleveraging of the 'risk' trade with the Federal Reserve's momentous change in its policy regime - given the initial Taper in December and confirmation that the QE3 program would be steadily worked off with the subsequent move this week - the market has seen the implications this carries for growth and yields. A decision to slowly reduce the external safety net for the US economy and capital markets is a sign of confidence in the economic recovery. Supporting that view this past session, the first reading of US 4Q GDP was released to a tempered but healthy 3.2 percent annualized pace - in line with expectations. This data was further encouraging when it was reported that consumer spending proffered its biggest boost to growth in three years. This looks like a serious anchor for the global economy and tangible advantage heading into a period of uncertainty. Another way the dollar's shift on currency spectrum has projected an advantage is through interest rate expectations. Though the Fed is still 'de-escalating' its stimulus program, the market is already starting to assess the eventual shift towards rate hikes. Surprisingly, overnight index swaps reveal that the market is actually projecting a rate hike within the next 12 months (pricing in 30 bps worth of tightening). That may ultimately prove overly optimistic / bullish; but as we close in on the time frame, the outlook for tightening will solidify. Week-to-week data and policy commentary is important for speculative bearings under these circumstances. Therefore, next week's NFPs will be a key update. But, in the meantime, the fringe risk of a market-wide risk shock will stand as a potent bullish scenario for this dormant safe haven. Euro Drops on Wavering Capital Flows, Inflation Data to Draws ECB Attention A sharp drop for the Euro this past session seems to run afoul of the data that was on the economic docket. For the 'core' Eurozone assessment, German unemployment dropped more than five times faster than expected. The 28,000 new jobs found in January was the biggest jump since September 2011 , and the 6.8 percent jobless rate matches a multi-decade low. Meanwhile, investors that have plowed capital into the 'periphery' breathed a sigh of relief when Spain reported 4Q GDP met expectations of a 0.3 percent period of growth - the strongest since 1Q 2008. Yet as encouraging as this data is, recognition of heavy capital inflows and a steady fall in lending are gaining greater prominence. Ahead, we have key important January Eurozone CPI figures - a precursor to next week's ECB decision. Yen Crosses Try to Recover as Risk Lingers, Data Weighs QE Need The yen crosses stabilized this past session, but the recovery effort is uneven. The persistent, bearish drive for the Japanese currency starting back in September of 2012 under the auspices of a massive BoJ stimulus program is suffering more frequent breaks. As sizable as the program has been and despite the rising forward rate expectations of the majors, the market is still reticent to sustain the next bull leg. Expectations of a follow up QE expansion in April - previously baked-in - may be easing. CPI this morning hit a five-year 1.6 percent and wage growth is lagging. New Zealand Dollar: Market Sees a 100% Probability of a March Hike Following the largely expected hold by the RBNZ Thursday morning, expectations of an imminent hike have moved from 35 percent (the assumption heading into this week's meeting) to 100 percent (fully pricing in a move at the March meeting). Speculation of a monetary policy move is frequently far-more market-moving than the change itself. Yet, this past session, the New Zealand dollar dropped against all but two of its major counterparts. There has been significant yield speculation priced into the kiwi, and traders are growing impatient for vindication. British Pound: Is There Enough for the BoE to Contemplate Next Week? There has been a tremendous commotion in the market with regards to the Bank of England's monetary policy. Investors interpreted the central bank's forward guidance literally; and now there is a serious discrepancy between the market's expectations and BoE's guidance for timing the hike. The policy authority is unlikely to move rates next week at their meeting, but could they use the opportunity to salvage their credibility? Australian Dollar Rebound Follows, Outpaces Equities A rebound in equities Thursday inspired the Australian dollar to the same - an impressive performance given the disappointing Aussie (HIA home sales and inflation) data as well as the downwardly revised Chinese manufacturing PMI. The most 'over-extended' markets often rebound first and the Aussie may be moving into this category. Perhaps the RBA will inspire something more next week. Emerging Market Currencies Split Thursday, Funds Report Massive Outflow Bold moves by Emerging Market officials to stem the dramatic outflow of capital that has plagued the economic class recently seem to have taken the edge off of the rising panic. Yet, the steps don't seem to have fully soothed fear. Capital curbs and rate hikes threaten local growth and leave a stain of uncertainty. Meanwhile, Lipper reports capital outflow from US-based EM funds hits a three-year high $2.6Bln . Gold Suffers Biggest Drop in 6 Weeks on Risk, Dollar Bounce A pullback for the EM volatility index (from a four-month high) and jump for the US dollar translated into a double hit for gold Thursday. The precious metal dropped 1.8 percent ( $23.32 ) - the biggest tumble in six weeks. This is even more significant move considering it has pulled the market back from a slow-motion, bullish trend reversal. Despite the move, both volume and volatility for the commodity moderated. ECONOMIC DATA GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments 0:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence(Jan) -12 -13 Actual: moved to its highest since Sept 2007 0:30 AUD PPI QoQ(4Q) 1.3% Actual: QoQ PPI Print has been positive since Q1 2012 0:30 AUD PPI YoY(4Q) 1.9% 0:30 AUD Private Sector Credit MoM(Dec) 0.4% 0.3% Actual: The MoM Print came in at 0.5% and YoY at 3.9% 0:30 AUD Private Sector Credit YoY(Dec) 3.7% 3.8% 2:00 NZD Money Supply M3 YoY(Dec) 6.7% Actual: NZ's M3 has been above 5% since Feb 2011 4:00 JPY Vehicle Production YoY(Dec) 10.2% The measure came in at 12.2% 5:00 JPY Housing Starts YoY(Dec) 13.6% 14.1% Construction Orders has been on a sharp decline since Sept 2013 (89.8%) 5:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts(Dec) 1.000M 1.033M 5:00 JPY Construction Orders YoY(Dec) 2.2% 7:00 GBP Germany Retail Sales MoM(Dec) 0.2% 1.5% The MoM print was revised from 1.5% to 0.8% and the YoY from 1.6% to 1.1%. 7:00 GBP Germany Retail Sales YoY(Dec) 1.9% 1.6% 7:45 EUR France PPI MoM(Dec) 0.1% 0.5% The YoY Print has been on the decline since April 2011 7:45 EUR France PPI YoY(Dec) -0.2% -0.6% 7:45 EUR France Consumer Spending MoM(Dec) -0.4% 1.4% The Prior MoM Print was the highest since Feb 2012 7:45 EUR France Consumer Spending YoY(Dec) 0.9% 1.5% 9:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Rate(Dec P) 12.8% 12.7% The Prior print was another record high 9:30 GBP Lloyds Business Barometer(Jan) 48 The Print has not down below 0 since Aug 2012 10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate(Dec) 12.1% 12.1% The measure has been at 12.1% since April 2013 10:00 EUR CPI Estimate YoY(Jan) 0.9% 0.8% The YoY CPI Estimate has been on the decline since Nov 2011 10:00 EUR CPI Core YoY(Jan A) 0.8% 0.7% 10:00 EUR Italy PPI MoM(Dec) -0.1% The YoY measure has been on the negative side for 8 consecutive months 10:00 EUR Italy PPI YoY(Dec) -2.3% 13:30 CAD GDP MoM(Nov) 0.2% 0.3% The MoM GDP print has been on the positive side since June 2013 13:30 CAD GDP YoY(Nov) 2.6% 2.7% 13:30 USD Employment Cost Index(4Q) 0.4% 0.4% The measure has been between 0.4% to 0.5% since 4Q 2011 13:30 USD Personal Income(Dec) 0.2% 0.2% The Personal Spending Print has been above 0% for 7 consecutive months 13:30 USD Personal Spending(Dec) 0.2% 0.5% 13:30 USD PCE Deflator MoM(Dec) 0.2% 0.0% The YoY PCE Core Print has been tanking since March 2012 13:30 USD PCE Deflator YoY(Dec) 1.1% 0.9% 13:30 USD PCE Core MoM(Dec) 0.1% 0.1% 13:30 USD PCE Core YoY(Dec) 1.2% 1.1% 14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager(Jan) 59 60.8 The Prior Print was revised higher from 59.1 GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches 15:00 USD Fed's George Speaks on Financial Stability in Cape Town 18:15 USD Fed's Fisher to Speak on Fed Operations in Forth Worth, Texas SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK Resist 2 14.0200 2.3800 12.7000 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 14.0200 2.3800 12.7000 Resist 1 13.5800 2.3000 11.8750 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 13.5800 2.3000 11.8750 Spot 13.3686 2.2692 11.1921 7.7667 1.2748 Spot 13.3686 2.2692 11.1921 Support 1 13.0000 2.1000 10.2500 7.7490 1.2000 Support 1 13.0000 2.1000 10.2500 Support 2 12.6000 1.7500 9.3700 7.7450 1.1800 Support 2 12.6000 1.7500 9.3700 INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT \CCY EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY Gold Res 3 1.3658 1.6620 103.78 0.9110 1.1247 0.8898 0.8252 140.82 1267.53 Res 2 1.3632 1.6589 103.53 0.9090 1.1225 0.8876 0.8229 140.44 1261.68 Res 1 1.3607 1.6558 103.27 0.9070 1.1202 0.8853 0.8206 140.05 1255.83 Spot 1.3556 1.6496 102.75 0.9029 1.1157 0.8807 0.8160 139.28 1244.13 Supp 1 1.3505 1.6434 102.23 0.8988 1.1112 0.8761 0.8114 138.51 1232.43 Supp 2 1.3480 1.6403 101.97 0.8968 1.1089 0.8738 0.8091 138.12 1226.58 Supp 3 1.3454 1.6372 101.72 0.8948 1.1067 0.8716 0.8068 137.74 1220.73 v The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets , L.L.C. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets , L.L.C. does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets , L.L.C. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Source: DailyFx

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